Stratovolcano โข Bali, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Agung erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 5.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~16 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2019.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
5.9%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~16y
recurrence
-8.342ยฐ, 115.508ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
5.9%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~16y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 16 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
7 eruptions over ~214 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~0% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 3.3โ10.4% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
7 eruptions over ~214 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,142m
Elevation
2019
Last Eruption
VEI 5
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
17 km NNW of Bedugul, Indonesia
22.7km deep โข 4km away
18 km NNE of Banjar Wangsian, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 5km away
18 km N of Amlapura city, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 10km away
21 km N of Amlapura city, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 17km away
15 km NW of Banjar Wangsian, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 19km away
11 km NE of Ubud, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 22km away
6 km ENE of Ubud, Indonesia
111.7km deep โข 26km away
Bali region, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 27km away
26 km NNE of Amlapura, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 28km away
28 km NW of Gili Trawangan, Indonesia
9.0km deep โข 39km away
5 km SE of Munduk, Indonesia
161.9km deep โข 43km away
31 km S of Amlapura, Indonesia
122.3km deep โข 46km away
Coordinates
-8.3420ยฐN, 115.5080ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Agung erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Agung's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 5.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 16 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Agung's most recent known eruption was 2019 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Agung is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Bali, Indonesia, rising to 3,142 m.
About 1,000,000 people live within 30 km of Agung and roughly 3,500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Agung is located in Bali, Indonesia, at -8.342ยฐ, 115.508ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,142 m.