Seismic-volcanic correlation & eruption probability modeling
Per-volcano baseline eruption rates weighed against PHIVOLCS alerts, repose time and live seismicity โ every signal shown as an evidence ledger. Statistical estimates, not deterministic predictions.
Volcanoes tracked
0
Elevated risk (PH)
0
Earthquakes analysed
0
M5+ (7 days)
0
global
Critical alerts (PH)
0
Countries
0
Each card shows how the probability is built โ baseline rate ร PHIVOLCS alert ร live seismicity โ Poisson โ and expands to reveal the exact data the model is reading. Tap a card to drill in.
Albay, Bicol ยท Stratovolcano
low confidenceยท 12 stationsยท hazard map โ
๐ Verify emergency plans. Know evacuation routes. Follow PHIVOLCS closely.
Active unrest puts this ~27.4ร above the long-run baseline, driven by phivolcs alert level 3, recent eruptive episode.
How this number is built
What's driving it
Magma near surface โ hazardous eruption possible within daysโweeks
Activity level 2/3
b=0.64 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=592
Multiple indicators suggest significantly elevated activity. This warrants immediate attention to preparedness.
Active unrest puts this ~27.4ร above the long-run baseline, driven by phivolcs alert level 3, recent eruptive episode.
Alert Level 3
Magma at shallow depth โ hazardous eruption possible within days to weeks.
Basis: PHIVOLCS Volcano Alert Level System
Activity level 2/3
A vigorous open hydrothermal system raises the chance of steam-driven (phreatic) activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS hydrothermal monitoring
3 eruptions in the last 10 years โ an active eruptive episode.
Volcanic activity clusters in episodes โ recent eruptions raise near-term probability.
Basis: GVP eruption history
b = 0.64 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=592
Low b-value (0.64) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
Basis: GutenbergโRichter b-value (Aki 1965; Wiemer & Wyss 2000)
~0 yr since last vs a ~6-yr average (ratio 0)
Erupted recently (~0 yr ago vs a ~6-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Basis: Weibull/renewal repose model (Bebbington & Lai 1996; Marzocchi & Bebbington 2012)
66 eruptions since 1616 โ ~1 per 6 yr
Anchor โ the average eruption frequency this volcano has shown historically.
Basis: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program eruption record
No qualifying large earthquakes in range/time window
Large nearby earthquakes can perturb the magma/hydrothermal system (static + dynamic stress).
Basis: Nishimura (2017) GRL 44; Jenkins et al. (2024) Volcanica
0 events within 15 km ยท 0.1/day
Elevated shallow, near-field seismicity can indicate magma or fluid movement.
Basis: Volcano-seismic monitoring (PHIVOLCS / USGS)
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
Basis: Hypocenter migration (Roman & Cashman 2006)
No acceleration detected
Accelerating seismicity can precede failure of the edifice/conduit.
Basis: Material-failure forecasting (Voight 1988; Kilburn 2003)
No significant clustering
Swarms and clusters indicate stress concentration or fluid migration beneath the edifice.
Basis: Seismic cluster analysis
Erupted recently (~0 yr ago vs a ~6-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Open-conduit stratovolcano โ frequent VEI 1โ3 (lava effusion, PDCs (pyroclastic density currents โ fast, hot ash-and-gas flows), Strombolian bursts)
Typical explosivity โ VEI 2
Detailed instrument readouts
Magma near surface โ hazardous eruption possible within daysโweeks
0.64 ยฑ 0.03
Mc 2.2 ยท n=592
Low b-value (0.64) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
No acceleration detected
749
analyzed
213
M3+
25
M4+
7
M5+
0
<5km deep
0
<15km away
0.1
ev/day
Background-level activity โ probability reflects the long-run baseline rate. Tap any volcano to see how its baseline is derived.
Active volcanoes with highest population exposure (GVP data)
Indonesia โข Java
Pop. 10km
1.0M
Pop. 30km
10.0M
Pop. 100km
40.0M
Indonesia โข Java
Live satellite imagery and official volcanic monitoring
Statistical monitoring helps you understand the trend. For decisions, always follow official PHIVOLCS bulletins.
Negros Oriental, Western Visayas ยท Stratovolcano
low confidenceยท 7 stationsยท hazard map โ
๐ Verify emergency plans. Know evacuation routes. Follow PHIVOLCS closely.
Active unrest puts this ~9.1ร above the long-run baseline, driven by phivolcs alert level 2, recent eruptive episode.
How this number is built
What's driving it
Increasing / probable magmatic unrest
Activity level 2/3
b=0.65 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=579
Multiple indicators suggest significantly elevated activity. This warrants immediate attention to preparedness.
Active unrest puts this ~9.1ร above the long-run baseline, driven by phivolcs alert level 2, recent eruptive episode.
Alert Level 2
Increasing/probable magmatic unrest โ heightened chance of eruption.
Basis: PHIVOLCS Volcano Alert Level System
Activity level 2/3
A vigorous open hydrothermal system raises the chance of steam-driven (phreatic) activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS hydrothermal monitoring
4 eruptions in the last 10 years โ an active eruptive episode.
Volcanic activity clusters in episodes โ recent eruptions raise near-term probability.
Basis: GVP eruption history
b = 0.65 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=579
Low b-value (0.65) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
Basis: GutenbergโRichter b-value (Aki 1965; Wiemer & Wyss 2000)
~0 yr since last vs a ~5-yr average (ratio 0)
Erupted recently (~0 yr ago vs a ~5-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Basis: Weibull/renewal repose model (Bebbington & Lai 1996; Marzocchi & Bebbington 2012)
31 eruptions since 1866 โ ~1 per 5 yr
Anchor โ the average eruption frequency this volcano has shown historically.
Basis: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program eruption record
No qualifying large earthquakes in range/time window
Large nearby earthquakes can perturb the magma/hydrothermal system (static + dynamic stress).
Basis: Nishimura (2017) GRL 44; Jenkins et al. (2024) Volcanica
0 events within 15 km ยท 0.0/day
Elevated shallow, near-field seismicity can indicate magma or fluid movement.
Basis: Volcano-seismic monitoring (PHIVOLCS / USGS)
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
Basis: Hypocenter migration (Roman & Cashman 2006)
No acceleration detected
Accelerating seismicity can precede failure of the edifice/conduit.
Basis: Material-failure forecasting (Voight 1988; Kilburn 2003)
No significant clustering
Swarms and clusters indicate stress concentration or fluid migration beneath the edifice.
Basis: Seismic cluster analysis
Erupted recently (~0 yr ago vs a ~5-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Stratovolcano โ frequent phreatic (steam-driven), occasional magmatic; VEI 1โ3
Typical explosivity โ VEI 2
Detailed instrument readouts
Increasing / probable magmatic unrest
0.65 ยฑ 0.03
Mc 2.2 ยท n=579
Low b-value (0.65) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
No acceleration detected
749
analyzed
213
M3+
25
M4+
7
M5+
0
<5km deep
0
<15km away
0.0
ev/day
Sorsogon, Bicol ยท Stratovolcano
low confidenceยท 6 stationsยท hazard map โ
๐ Review and update emergency preparedness. Monitor official bulletins.
Active unrest puts this ~3.4ร above the long-run baseline, driven by phivolcs alert level 1, recent eruptive episode.
How this number is built
What's driving it
Low-level unrest (abnormal)
Activity level 2/3
b=0.64 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=592
Statistical models indicate significantly elevated probability. Prudent preparedness recommended.
Active unrest puts this ~3.4ร above the long-run baseline, driven by phivolcs alert level 1, recent eruptive episode.
Alert Level 1
Low-level unrest (abnormal) โ slightly elevated chance of steam-driven activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS Volcano Alert Level System
Activity level 2/3
A vigorous open hydrothermal system raises the chance of steam-driven (phreatic) activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS hydrothermal monitoring
3 eruptions in the last 10 years โ an active eruptive episode.
Volcanic activity clusters in episodes โ recent eruptions raise near-term probability.
Basis: GVP eruption history
b = 0.64 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=592
Low b-value (0.64) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
Basis: GutenbergโRichter b-value (Aki 1965; Wiemer & Wyss 2000)
~1 yr since last vs a ~7-yr average (ratio 0.14)
Erupted recently (~1 yr ago vs a ~7-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Basis: Weibull/renewal repose model (Bebbington & Lai 1996; Marzocchi & Bebbington 2012)
25 eruptions since 1852 โ ~1 per 7 yr
Anchor โ the average eruption frequency this volcano has shown historically.
Basis: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program eruption record
No qualifying large earthquakes in range/time window
Large nearby earthquakes can perturb the magma/hydrothermal system (static + dynamic stress).
Basis: Nishimura (2017) GRL 44; Jenkins et al. (2024) Volcanica
0 events within 15 km ยท 0.2/day
Elevated shallow, near-field seismicity can indicate magma or fluid movement.
Basis: Volcano-seismic monitoring (PHIVOLCS / USGS)
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
Basis: Hypocenter migration (Roman & Cashman 2006)
No acceleration detected
Accelerating seismicity can precede failure of the edifice/conduit.
Basis: Material-failure forecasting (Voight 1988; Kilburn 2003)
No significant clustering
Swarms and clusters indicate stress concentration or fluid migration beneath the edifice.
Basis: Seismic cluster analysis
Erupted recently (~1 yr ago vs a ~7-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Stratovolcano โ predominantly phreatic (steam-driven); VEI 1โ2
Typical explosivity โ VEI 1
Detailed instrument readouts
Low-level unrest (abnormal)
0.64 ยฑ 0.03
Mc 2.2 ยท n=592
Low b-value (0.64) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
No acceleration detected
749
analyzed
213
M3+
25
M4+
7
M5+
1
<5km deep
0
<15km away
0.2
ev/day
Batangas, CALABARZON ยท Caldera
low confidenceยท 15 stationsยท hazard map โ
๐ Good time to review emergency plans and supplies.
Active unrest puts this ~4.3ร above the long-run baseline, driven by phivolcs alert level 1, recent eruptive episode.
How this number is built
What's driving it
Activity level 3/3
Low-level unrest (abnormal)
b=0.67 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=332
Multiple factors suggest above-average activity level.
Active unrest puts this ~4.3ร above the long-run baseline, driven by phivolcs alert level 1, recent eruptive episode.
Activity level 3/3
A vigorous open hydrothermal system raises the chance of steam-driven (phreatic) activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS hydrothermal monitoring
Alert Level 1
Low-level unrest (abnormal) โ slightly elevated chance of steam-driven activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS Volcano Alert Level System
b = 0.67 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=332
Low b-value (0.67) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
Basis: GutenbergโRichter b-value (Aki 1965; Wiemer & Wyss 2000)
2 eruptions in the last 10 years โ an active eruptive episode.
Volcanic activity clusters in episodes โ recent eruptions raise near-term probability.
Basis: GVP eruption history
39 eruptions since 1572 โ ~1 per 12 yr
Anchor โ the average eruption frequency this volcano has shown historically.
Basis: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program eruption record
No qualifying large earthquakes in range/time window
Large nearby earthquakes can perturb the magma/hydrothermal system (static + dynamic stress).
Basis: Nishimura (2017) GRL 44; Jenkins et al. (2024) Volcanica
0 events within 15 km ยท 0.1/day
Elevated shallow, near-field seismicity can indicate magma or fluid movement.
Basis: Volcano-seismic monitoring (PHIVOLCS / USGS)
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
Basis: Hypocenter migration (Roman & Cashman 2006)
No acceleration detected
Accelerating seismicity can precede failure of the edifice/conduit.
Basis: Material-failure forecasting (Voight 1988; Kilburn 2003)
No significant clustering
Swarms and clusters indicate stress concentration or fluid migration beneath the edifice.
Basis: Seismic cluster analysis
~4 yr since last vs a ~12-yr average (ratio 0.34)
Within its typical repose window (~4 yr since last vs ~12-yr average).
Basis: Weibull/renewal repose model (Bebbington & Lai 1996; Marzocchi & Bebbington 2012)
Within its typical repose window (~4 yr since last vs ~12-yr average).
Caldera/complex โ phreatomagmatic (magmaโwater explosions), base surges (ground-hugging ash clouds); VEI 1โ4
Typical explosivity โ VEI 3
Detailed instrument readouts
Low-level unrest (abnormal)
0.67 ยฑ 0.04
Mc 2.2 ยท n=332
Low b-value (0.67) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
No acceleration detected
749
analyzed
213
M3+
25
M4+
7
M5+
0
<5km deep
0
<15km away
0.1
ev/day
Pop. 10km
400K
Pop. 30km
8.0M
Pop. 100km
35.0M
Indonesia โข Java
Pop. 10km
500K
Pop. 30km
7.0M
Pop. 100km
30.0M
Indonesia โข Java
Pop. 10km
700K
Pop. 30km
6.0M
Pop. 100km
30.0M
Indonesia โข Java
Pop. 10km
500K
Pop. 30km
5.0M
Pop. 100km
15.0M
Indonesia โข Java
Pop. 10km
200K
Pop. 30km
5.0M
Pop. 100km
30.0M
Indonesia โข Java
Pop. 10km
200K
Pop. 30km
5.0M
Pop. 100km
20.0M
Italy โข Italy
Pop. 10km
3.0M
Pop. 30km
5.0M
Pop. 100km
10.0M
Italy โข Italy
Pop. 10km
1.5M
Pop. 30km
4.0M
Pop. 100km
8.0M
Indonesia โข Java
Pop. 10km
400K
Pop. 30km
3.5M
Pop. 100km
25.0M
Indonesia โข Java
Pop. 10km
300K
Pop. 30km
3.0M
Pop. 100km
25.0M
Indonesia โข Java
Pop. 10km
200K
Pop. 30km
3.0M
Pop. 100km
20.0M
Real-time earthquake detection
This analysis provides statistical probability assessments, not deterministic eruption predictions. Volcanic systems are complex and can change rapidly. Always defer to official PHIVOLCS bulletins and local authorities. Probabilities shown represent elevated risk over multi-year timeframes.