Stratovolcano โข Java, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Merapi in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 28.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~3 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
28.3%
1-year
2.7%
30-day
~3y
recurrence
-7.541ยฐ, 110.446ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
28.3%
1-year probability
2.7%
30-day
~3y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 3 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
112 dated eruptions over ~10806 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~1.3% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 21.1โ37.2% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
112 dated eruptions over ~10806 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,910m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
10 km E of Sewon, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 36km away
18 km S of Wedi, Indonesia
149.9km deep โข 44km away
55 km SE of Pundong, Indonesia
85.5km deep โข 92km away
24 km SSE of Buaran, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 93km away
50 km S of Bambanglipuro, Indonesia
95.4km deep โข 100km away
11 km WNW of Ngawi, Indonesia
17.9km deep โข 101km away
7 km ENE of Pekalongan, Indonesia
11.1km deep โข 109km away
5 km SW of Ponorogo, Indonesia
127.0km deep โข 115km away
62 km S of Jatiroto, Indonesia
95.4km deep โข 126km away
82 km SSW of Bambanglipuro, Indonesia
76.4km deep โข 132km away
86 km S of Pundong, Indonesia
71.7km deep โข 133km away
93 km SSE of Pundong, Indonesia
58.2km deep โข 136km away
Coordinates
-7.5410ยฐN, 110.4460ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Merapi in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Merapi's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 28.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 3 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Merapi's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Merapi is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Java, Indonesia, rising to 2,910 m.
About 3,500,000 people live within 30 km of Merapi and roughly 25,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Merapi is located in Java, Indonesia, at -7.541ยฐ, 110.446ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,910 m.