Stratovolcano โข Java, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Lawu erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 5.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~16 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1885.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
5.9%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~16y
recurrence
-7.625ยฐ, 111.192ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
5.9%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~16y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 16 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.7โ19.2% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,265m
Elevation
1885
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
11 km WNW of Ngawi, Indonesia
17.9km deep โข 33km away
5 km SW of Ponorogo, Indonesia
127.0km deep โข 40km away
18 km S of Wedi, Indonesia
149.9km deep โข 75km away
36 km SW of Trenggalek, Indonesia
108.6km deep โข 80km away
10 km E of Sewon, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 86km away
62 km S of Jatiroto, Indonesia
95.4km deep โข 92km away
55 km SE of Pundong, Indonesia
85.5km deep โข 99km away
30 km SSW of Boyolangu, Indonesia
148.0km deep โข 109km away
Java, Indonesia
96.6km deep โข 112km away
95 km S of Jatiroto, Indonesia
65.2km deep โข 126km away
101 km SSE of Pundong, Indonesia
101.3km deep โข 133km away
101 km SW of Trenggalek, Indonesia
67.9km deep โข 134km away
Coordinates
-7.6250ยฐN, 111.1920ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Lawu erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Lawu's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 5.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 16 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Lawu's most recent known eruption was 1885 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Lawu is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Java, Indonesia, rising to 3,265 m.
About 5,000,000 people live within 30 km of Lawu and roughly 20,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Lawu is located in Java, Indonesia, at -7.625ยฐ, 111.192ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,265 m.