Stratovolcano โข Cagayan Valley, Philippines
Located in northeastern Luzon. Active fumaroles present.
Very unlikely near-term
Cagua has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Our model estimates a 1.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~100 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1907.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories. How this is calculated โ
1.5%
1-year
0.1%
30-day
~100y
recurrence
18.222ยฐ, 122.123ยฐ ยท Philippines ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
Cagayan, Cagayan Valley ยท Stratovolcano
low confidenceยท 2 stationsยท no hazard map
๐ General awareness sufficient.
Near the long-run baseline โ only background factors are mildly elevated.
How this number is built
What's driving it
Activity level 2/3
No significant indicators.
Near the long-run baseline โ only background factors are mildly elevated.
Activity level 2/3
A vigorous open hydrothermal system raises the chance of steam-driven (phreatic) activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS hydrothermal monitoring
Status-based estimate (~1 per 100 yr)
Anchor โ the average eruption frequency this volcano has shown historically.
Basis: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program eruption record
Alert Level 0
No significant unrest โ eruption not expected in the near term.
Basis: PHIVOLCS Volcano Alert Level System
Recurrence interval not well constrained
No data-derived recurrence interval โ repose effect not modeled.
Basis: Weibull/renewal repose model (Bebbington & Lai 1996; Marzocchi & Bebbington 2012)
No eruptions in the last 10 years.
Volcanic activity clusters in episodes โ recent eruptions raise near-term probability.
Basis: GVP eruption history
No qualifying large earthquakes in range/time window
Large nearby earthquakes can perturb the magma/hydrothermal system (static + dynamic stress).
Basis: Nishimura (2017) GRL 44; Jenkins et al. (2024) Volcanica
1 events within 15 km ยท 0.1/day
Elevated shallow, near-field seismicity can indicate magma or fluid movement.
Basis: Volcano-seismic monitoring (PHIVOLCS / USGS)
b = 0.72 (normal) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=229
Normal b-value (0.72) indicates typical tectonic seismicity
Basis: GutenbergโRichter b-value (Aki 1965; Wiemer & Wyss 2000)
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
Basis: Hypocenter migration (Roman & Cashman 2006)
No acceleration detected
Accelerating seismicity can precede failure of the edifice/conduit.
Basis: Material-failure forecasting (Voight 1988; Kilburn 2003)
No significant clustering
Swarms and clusters indicate stress concentration or fluid migration beneath the edifice.
Basis: Seismic cluster analysis
No data-derived recurrence interval โ repose effect not modeled.
Detailed instrument readouts
Normal โ no significant unrest
0.72 ยฑ 0.05
Mc 2.2 ยท n=229
Normal b-value (0.72) indicates typical tectonic seismicity
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
No acceleration detected
859
analyzed
213
M3+
25
M4+
7
M5+
0
<5km deep
1
<15km away
0.1
ev/day
Smithsonian GVP eruption frequency โ about one eruption every ~100 years.
Normal โ no significant unrest reported.
Product of b-value, depth migration, acceleration, triggering & swarm signals.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โModeled from PHIVOLCS alert level + live seismicity + eruption history. See the Risk Analysis dashboard for all volcanoes side by side.
explosive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
Sparse / largely unknown history (1 recorded) โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,133m
Elevation
1907
Last Eruption
Stratovolcano
Type
โ
Recorded Eruptions
~100y
Avg. Recurrence
1907
Last Eruption
Baseline eruption rate derived from Smithsonian GVP confirmed-eruption frequency. Current eruption probability (incorporating PHIVOLCS alert level and live seismicity) is on the Risk Analysis dashboard.
010 km S 65ยฐ E of Gonzaga (Cagayan)
23.0km deep โข 3km away
012 km S 46ยฐ E of Gonzaga (Cagayan)
16.0km deep โข 6km away
008 km S 71ยฐ E of Gonzaga (Cagayan)
23.0km deep โข 6km away
014 km S 44ยฐ E of Gonzaga (Cagayan)
33.0km deep โข 7km away
014 km S 41ยฐ E of Gonzaga (Cagayan)
15.0km deep โข 8km away
008 km S 41ยฐ E of Gonzaga (Cagayan)
16.0km deep โข 8km away
006 km S 64ยฐ E of Gonzaga (Cagayan)
21.0km deep โข 8km away
006 km S 36ยฐ E of Gonzaga (Cagayan)
24.0km deep โข 10km away
LUZON, PHILIPPINES
19.0km deep โข 13km away
028 km S 41ยฐ E of Santa Ana (Cagayan)
3.0km deep โข 20km away
LUZON, PHILIPPINES
5.0km deep โข 21km away
034 km S 50ยฐ E of Gonzaga (Cagayan)
21.0km deep โข 22km away
Coordinates
18.2220ยฐN, 122.1230ยฐE
Region
Philippines and SE Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Cagua has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Based on Cagua's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 1.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 100 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
Cagua's most recent known eruption was 1907 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Cagua is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Cagayan Valley, Philippines, rising to 1,133 m.
About 45,000 people live within 30 km of Cagua. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Cagua is located in Cagayan Valley, Philippines, at 18.222ยฐ, 122.123ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,133 m.