Stratovolcano โข Bicol, Philippines
Most active volcano in Philippines. Perfect cone shape. Ongoing eruption since 2024 with lava flows, PDCs, and Strombolian activity.
Under active unrest
Mayon is under PHIVOLCS Alert Level 3 โ unrest is elevated above background and an eruption is a realistic near-term possibility. Our model estimates a 98% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~6 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2026.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories. How this is calculated โ
98%
1-year
35%
30-day
~6y
recurrence
13.257ยฐ, 123.685ยฐ ยท Philippines ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
Albay, Bicol ยท Stratovolcano
low confidenceยท 12 stationsยท hazard map โ
๐ Verify emergency plans. Know evacuation routes. Follow PHIVOLCS closely.
Active unrest puts this ~27.4ร above the long-run baseline, driven by phivolcs alert level 3, recent eruptive episode.
How this number is built
What's driving it
Magma near surface โ hazardous eruption possible within daysโweeks
Activity level 2/3
b=0.67 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=671
Multiple indicators suggest significantly elevated activity. This warrants immediate attention to preparedness.
Active unrest puts this ~27.4ร above the long-run baseline, driven by phivolcs alert level 3, recent eruptive episode.
Alert Level 3
Magma at shallow depth โ hazardous eruption possible within days to weeks.
Basis: PHIVOLCS Volcano Alert Level System
Activity level 2/3
A vigorous open hydrothermal system raises the chance of steam-driven (phreatic) activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS hydrothermal monitoring
3 eruptions in the last 10 years โ an active eruptive episode.
Volcanic activity clusters in episodes โ recent eruptions raise near-term probability.
Basis: GVP eruption history
b = 0.67 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=671
Low b-value (0.67) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
Basis: GutenbergโRichter b-value (Aki 1965; Wiemer & Wyss 2000)
~0 yr since last vs a ~6-yr average (ratio 0)
Erupted recently (~0 yr ago vs a ~6-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Basis: Weibull/renewal repose model (Bebbington & Lai 1996; Marzocchi & Bebbington 2012)
66 eruptions since 1616 โ ~1 per 6 yr
Anchor โ the average eruption frequency this volcano has shown historically.
Basis: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program eruption record
No qualifying large earthquakes in range/time window
Large nearby earthquakes can perturb the magma/hydrothermal system (static + dynamic stress).
Basis: Nishimura (2017) GRL 44; Jenkins et al. (2024) Volcanica
0 events within 15 km ยท 0.1/day
Elevated shallow, near-field seismicity can indicate magma or fluid movement.
Basis: Volcano-seismic monitoring (PHIVOLCS / USGS)
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
Basis: Hypocenter migration (Roman & Cashman 2006)
No acceleration detected
Accelerating seismicity can precede failure of the edifice/conduit.
Basis: Material-failure forecasting (Voight 1988; Kilburn 2003)
No significant clustering
Swarms and clusters indicate stress concentration or fluid migration beneath the edifice.
Basis: Seismic cluster analysis
Erupted recently (~0 yr ago vs a ~6-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Open-conduit stratovolcano โ frequent VEI 1โ3 (lava effusion, PDCs (pyroclastic density currents โ fast, hot ash-and-gas flows), Strombolian bursts)
Typical explosivity โ VEI 2
Detailed instrument readouts
Magma near surface โ hazardous eruption possible within daysโweeks
0.67 ยฑ 0.03
Mc 2.2 ยท n=671
Low b-value (0.67) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
No acceleration detected
859
analyzed
213
M3+
25
M4+
7
M5+
1
<5km deep
0
<15km away
0.1
ev/day
Smithsonian GVP eruption frequency โ about one eruption every ~6 years.
Official unrest classification โ the strongest near-term signal.
Product of b-value, depth migration, acceleration, triggering & swarm signals.
Erupted recently (~0 yr ago vs a ~6-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โModeled from PHIVOLCS alert level + live seismicity + eruption history. See the Risk Analysis dashboard for all volcanoes side by side.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
69 dated eruptions over ~5126 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,462m
Elevation
2026
Last Eruption
Stratovolcano
Type
66
Recorded Eruptions (since 1616)
~6y
Avg. Recurrence
2026
Last Eruption
Baseline eruption rate derived from Smithsonian GVP confirmed-eruption frequency. Current eruption probability (incorporating PHIVOLCS alert level and live seismicity) is on the Risk Analysis dashboard.
Open-conduit stratovolcano โ frequent VEI 1โ3 (lava effusion, PDCs (pyroclastic density currents โ fast, hot ash-and-gas flows), Strombolian bursts)
Typical explosivity โ VEI 2
Erupted recently (~0 yr ago vs a ~6-yr average) โ repose does not add near-term risk.
Live risk direction, the full evidence ledger and seismic precursors are on the Risk Analysis dashboard.
002 km N 17ยฐ E of Santo Domingo (Albay)
34.0km deep โข 10km away
007 km N 07ยฐ W of Santo Domingo (Albay)
35.0km deep โข 10km away
003 km N 21ยฐ E of Santo Domingo (Albay)
32.0km deep โข 11km away
LUZON, PHILIPPINES
10.0km deep โข 14km away
LUZON, PHILIPPINES
10.0km deep โข 14km away
004 km N 75ยฐ E of Santo Domingo (Albay)
33.0km deep โข 14km away
004 km N 79ยฐ E of Santo Domingo (Albay)
10.0km deep โข 14km away
004 km S 81ยฐ E of Santo Domingo (Albay)
11.0km deep โข 14km away
005 km N 77ยฐ E of Santo Domingo (Albay)
11.0km deep โข 15km away
005 km N 89ยฐ E of Santo Domingo (Albay)
12.0km deep โข 15km away
004 km S 43ยฐ W of Santo Domingo (Albay)
10.0km deep โข 15km away
005 km N 89ยฐ E of Santo Domingo (Albay)
28.0km deep โข 15km away
Coordinates
13.2570ยฐN, 123.6850ยฐE
Region
Philippines and SE Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Mayon is under PHIVOLCS Alert Level 3 โ unrest is elevated above background and an eruption is a realistic near-term possibility. Based on Mayon's eruption history and current PHIVOLCS Alert Level 3, our model estimates roughly a 98% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 6 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
Mayon's most recent known eruption was 2026 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Mayon is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Bicol, Philippines, rising to 2,462 m.
About 1,200,000 people live within 30 km of Mayon. The current modeled hazard level is critical. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Mayon is located in Bicol, Philippines, at 13.257ยฐ, 123.685ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,462 m.