Caldera โข CALABARZON, Philippines
Most monitored volcano in Philippines. Located in Taal Lake within a larger caldera. Multiple eruptions since 2020.
Under active unrest
Taal is under PHIVOLCS Alert Level 1 โ unrest is elevated above background and an eruption is a realistic near-term possibility. Our model estimates a 24.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~12 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2022.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories. How this is calculated โ
24.5%
1-year
2.3%
30-day
~12y
recurrence
14.002ยฐ, 120.993ยฐ ยท Philippines ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
Batangas, CALABARZON ยท Caldera
low confidenceยท 15 stationsยท hazard map โ
๐ Good time to review emergency plans and supplies.
Active unrest puts this ~3.3ร above the long-run baseline, driven by phivolcs alert level 1, recent eruptive episode.
How this number is built
What's driving it
Activity level 3/3
Low-level unrest (abnormal)
Multiple factors suggest above-average activity level.
Active unrest puts this ~3.3ร above the long-run baseline, driven by phivolcs alert level 1, recent eruptive episode.
Activity level 3/3
A vigorous open hydrothermal system raises the chance of steam-driven (phreatic) activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS hydrothermal monitoring
Alert Level 1
Low-level unrest (abnormal) โ slightly elevated chance of steam-driven activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS Volcano Alert Level System
2 eruptions in the last 10 years โ an active eruptive episode.
Volcanic activity clusters in episodes โ recent eruptions raise near-term probability.
Basis: GVP eruption history
39 eruptions since 1572 โ ~1 per 12 yr
Anchor โ the average eruption frequency this volcano has shown historically.
Basis: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program eruption record
No qualifying large earthquakes in range/time window
Large nearby earthquakes can perturb the magma/hydrothermal system (static + dynamic stress).
Basis: Nishimura (2017) GRL 44; Jenkins et al. (2024) Volcanica
0 events within 15 km ยท 0.1/day
Elevated shallow, near-field seismicity can indicate magma or fluid movement.
Basis: Volcano-seismic monitoring (PHIVOLCS / USGS)
b = 0.71 (normal) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=382
Normal b-value (0.71) indicates typical tectonic seismicity
Basis: GutenbergโRichter b-value (Aki 1965; Wiemer & Wyss 2000)
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
Basis: Hypocenter migration (Roman & Cashman 2006)
No acceleration detected
Accelerating seismicity can precede failure of the edifice/conduit.
Basis: Material-failure forecasting (Voight 1988; Kilburn 2003)
No significant clustering
Swarms and clusters indicate stress concentration or fluid migration beneath the edifice.
Basis: Seismic cluster analysis
~4 yr since last vs a ~12-yr average (ratio 0.34)
Within its typical repose window (~4 yr since last vs ~12-yr average).
Basis: Weibull/renewal repose model (Bebbington & Lai 1996; Marzocchi & Bebbington 2012)
Within its typical repose window (~4 yr since last vs ~12-yr average).
Caldera/complex โ phreatomagmatic (magmaโwater explosions), base surges (ground-hugging ash clouds); VEI 1โ4
Typical explosivity โ VEI 3
Detailed instrument readouts
Low-level unrest (abnormal)
0.71 ยฑ 0.04
Mc 2.2 ยท n=382
Normal b-value (0.71) indicates typical tectonic seismicity
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
No acceleration detected
859
analyzed
213
M3+
25
M4+
7
M5+
0
<5km deep
0
<15km away
0.1
ev/day
Smithsonian GVP eruption frequency โ about one eruption every ~12 years.
Official unrest classification โ the strongest near-term signal.
Product of b-value, depth migration, acceleration, triggering & swarm signals.
Within its typical repose window (~4 yr since last vs ~12-yr average).
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โModeled from PHIVOLCS alert level + live seismicity + eruption history. See the Risk Analysis dashboard for all volcanoes side by side.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 6
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6.
40 dated eruptions over ~5606 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
311m
Elevation
2022
Last Eruption
Caldera
Type
39
Recorded Eruptions (since 1572)
~12y
Avg. Recurrence
2022
Last Eruption
Baseline eruption rate derived from Smithsonian GVP confirmed-eruption frequency. Current eruption probability (incorporating PHIVOLCS alert level and live seismicity) is on the Risk Analysis dashboard.
Caldera/complex โ phreatomagmatic (magmaโwater explosions), base surges (ground-hugging ash clouds); VEI 1โ4
Typical explosivity โ VEI 3
Within its typical repose window (~4 yr since last vs ~12-yr average).
Live risk direction, the full evidence ledger and seismic precursors are on the Risk Analysis dashboard.
002 km N 04ยฐ W of San Nicolas (Batangas)
113.0km deep โข 7km away
005 km N 67ยฐ W of Padre Garcia (Batangas)
101.0km deep โข 22km away
002 km West of Mabini (Batangas)
24.0km deep โข 29km away
005 km S 71ยฐ E of Taysan (Batangas)
113.0km deep โข 36km away
004 km N 36ยฐ E of Tingloy (Batangas)
33.0km deep โข 36km away
009 km N 78ยฐ W of Balayan (Batangas)
112.0km deep โข 37km away
016 km S 46ยฐ E of Calatagan (Batangas)
183.0km deep โข 41km away
010 km N 23ยฐ W of Calatagan (Batangas)
26.0km deep โข 43km away
7 km SSE of Calatagan, Philippines
155.4km deep โข 44km away
001 km N 79ยฐ E of Dolores (Quezon)
35.0km deep โข 44km away
002 km S 07ยฐ W of Calatagan (Batangas)
167.0km deep โข 44km away
002 km N 53ยฐ W of Calatagan (Batangas)
86.0km deep โข 44km away
Coordinates
14.0020ยฐN, 120.9930ยฐE
Region
Philippines and SE Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Taal is under PHIVOLCS Alert Level 1 โ unrest is elevated above background and an eruption is a realistic near-term possibility. Based on Taal's eruption history and current PHIVOLCS Alert Level 1, our model estimates roughly a 24.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 12 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
Taal's most recent known eruption was 2022 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Taal is classified as active. It is a caldera in CALABARZON, Philippines, rising to 311 m.
About 2,100,000 people live within 30 km of Taal. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Taal is located in CALABARZON, Philippines, at 14.002ยฐ, 120.993ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 311 m.