Stratovolcano โข Java, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Galunggung erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~26 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1984.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.7%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~26y
recurrence
-7.250ยฐ, 108.058ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
3.7%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~26y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 26 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
7 eruptions over ~4234 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~0% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 2.1โ6.6% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
7 eruptions over ~4234 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,168m
Elevation
1984
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
12 km SSW of Kawalu, Indonesia
90.0km deep โข 30km away
27 km SSW of Kawalu, Indonesia
107.7km deep โข 39km away
28 km S of Kawalu, Indonesia
93.5km deep โข 44km away
9 km W of Paseh, Indonesia
133.8km deep โข 45km away
24 km ESE of Banjar, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 47km away
22 km S of Ciamis, Indonesia
101.1km deep โข 47km away
20 km ESE of Banjar, Indonesia
120.0km deep โข 49km away
39 km SE of Banjar, Indonesia
67.1km deep โข 51km away
15 km ESE of Banjar, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 54km away
44 km SSW of Singaparna, Indonesia
72.2km deep โข 55km away
14 km E of Banjar, Indonesia
6.9km deep โข 55km away
45 km SSW of Kawalu, Indonesia
91.7km deep โข 57km away
Coordinates
-7.2500ยฐN, 108.0580ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Galunggung erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Galunggung's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 26 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Galunggung's most recent known eruption was 1984 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Galunggung is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Java, Indonesia, rising to 2,168 m.
About 3,000,000 people live within 30 km of Galunggung and roughly 25,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Galunggung is located in Java, Indonesia, at -7.250ยฐ, 108.058ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,168 m.