Stratovolcano โข Java, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Salak erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 5.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~17 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1938.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
5.8%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~17y
recurrence
-6.720ยฐ, 106.730ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
5.8%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~17y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 17 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
6 eruptions over ~239 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 3.3โ10.2% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
6 eruptions over ~239 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,211m
Elevation
1938
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
11 km W of Cicurug, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 9km away
9 km SSE of Cicurug, Indonesia
123.6km deep โข 18km away
16 km WSW of Ciampea, Indonesia
121.1km deep โข 24km away
16 km W of Sukabumi, Indonesia
113.0km deep โข 24km away
14 km NNW of Pelabuhanratu, Indonesia
10.4km deep โข 27km away
18 km E of Pelabuhanratu, Indonesia
72.2km deep โข 30km away
10 km NNE of Sukabumi, Indonesia
10.8km deep โข 30km away
11 km NE of Sukabumi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 32km away
33 km NNW of Pelabuhanratu, Indonesia
64.0km deep โข 38km away
18 km SSW of Sukabumi, Indonesia
62.9km deep โข 40km away
12 km E of Sukabumi, Indonesia
155.1km deep โข 41km away
36 km NW of Pelabuhanratu, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 44km away
Coordinates
-6.7200ยฐN, 106.7300ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Salak erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Salak's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 5.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 17 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Salak's most recent known eruption was 1938 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Salak is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Java, Indonesia, rising to 2,211 m.
About 10,000,000 people live within 30 km of Salak and roughly 40,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Salak is located in Java, Indonesia, at -6.720ยฐ, 106.730ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,211 m.