Stratovolcano โข Central Iceland, Iceland
Unlikely in any given year
Askja erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~24 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1961.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.1%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~24y
recurrence
65.030ยฐ, -16.750ยฐ ยท Iceland ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.1%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~24y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 24 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
14 dated eruptions over ~10871 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~0% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 2.9โ5.7% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
effusive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
14 dated eruptions over ~10871 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,516m
Elevation
1961
Last Eruption
VEI 5
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
110 km WNW of Hรถfn, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 48km away
110 km WNW of Hรถfn, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 51km away
107 km WNW of Hรถfn, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 52km away
115 km SSE of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 53km away
112 km SSE of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 53km away
110 km WNW of Hรถfn, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 55km away
115 km SSE of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 56km away
108 km WNW of Hรถfn, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 56km away
116 km SSE of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 56km away
117 km WNW of Hรถfn, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 57km away
106 km S of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 57km away
119 km SSE of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 58km away
Coordinates
65.0300ยฐN, -16.7500ยฐE
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Askja erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Askja's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 24 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Askja's most recent known eruption was 1961 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Askja is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Central Iceland, Iceland, rising to 1,516 m.
About 50 people live within 30 km of Askja and roughly 5,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Askja is located in Central Iceland, Iceland, at 65.030ยฐ, -16.750ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,516 m.