Stratovolcano โข Sangihe Islands, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Awu erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 7.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~13 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2004.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
7.4%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~13y
recurrence
3.670ยฐ, 125.500ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
7.4%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~13y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 13 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
19 dated eruptions over ~364 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.3% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 5.4โ10.3% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
19 dated eruptions over ~364 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,320m
Elevation
2004
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
201.0km deep โข 11km away
KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
224.0km deep โข 11km away
KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
6.0km deep โข 25km away
KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
106.0km deep โข 33km away
192 km SSE of Sarangani, Philippines
386.4km deep โข 34km away
KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
149.0km deep โข 38km away
154 km S of Sarangani, Philippines
10.0km deep โข 43km away
KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
7.0km deep โข 57km away
167 km SSE of Sarangani, Philippines
125.8km deep โข 57km away
136 km S 02ยฐ E of Balut Island (Municipality Of Sarangani) (Davao Occidental)
8.0km deep โข 57km away
KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
106.0km deep โข 60km away
KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
95.0km deep โข 61km away
Coordinates
3.6700ยฐN, 125.5000ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Awu erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Awu's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 7.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 13 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Awu's most recent known eruption was 2004 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Awu is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Sangihe Islands, Indonesia, rising to 1,320 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Awu and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Awu is located in Sangihe Islands, Indonesia, at 3.670ยฐ, 125.500ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,320 m.