Stratovolcano โข Honshu, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Azuma erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 7.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~13 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1977.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
7.2%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~13y
recurrence
37.735ยฐ, 140.244ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
7.2%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~13y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 13 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
24 dated eruptions over ~7677 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 5.2โ9.9% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
24 dated eruptions over ~7677 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,949m
Elevation
1977
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
12 km ESE of Yonezawa, Japan
98.7km deep โข 15km away
7 km NNW of Hobaramachi, Japan
130.5km deep โข 28km away
12 km ENE of Nihommatsu, Japan
88.6km deep โข 31km away
6 km WNW of K?riyama, Japan
99.4km deep โข 35km away
21 km W of Minami-Sลma, Japan
103.9km deep โข 45km away
8 km E of Yamagata, Japan
101.6km deep โข 58km away
20 km NNE of Kuroiso, Japan
106.0km deep โข 67km away
6 km WSW of Namie, Japan
30.7km deep โข 67km away
2 km NE of Asakawa, Japan
98.5km deep โข 73km away
2 km S of Namie, Japan
70.8km deep โข 74km away
8 km SE of Ishikawa, Japan
36.0km deep โข 75km away
34 km ESE of Marumori, Japan
63.8km deep โข 78km away
Coordinates
37.7350ยฐN, 140.2440ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Azuma erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Azuma's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 7.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 13 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Azuma's most recent known eruption was 1977 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Azuma is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Honshu, Japan, rising to 1,949 m.
About 400,000 people live within 30 km of Azuma and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Azuma is located in Honshu, Japan, at 37.735ยฐ, 140.244ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,949 m.