Stratovolcano • Vatnajökull, Iceland
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Bárðarbunga in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 17.7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~5 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2015.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
17.7%
1-year
1.6%
30-day
~5y
recurrence
64.641°, -17.528° · Iceland · 12 nearby earthquakes
17.7%
1-year probability
1.6%
30-day
~5y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 5 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
55 dated eruptions over ~9115 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 6. ~0.8% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 13–23.9% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive · very high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 6
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 6.
55 dated eruptions over ~9115 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
2,009m
Elevation
2015
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
117 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 2km away
119 km SSE of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep • 2km away
116 km SSE of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep • 3km away
115 km SSE of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep • 4km away
115 km SSE of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep • 4km away
112 km SSE of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep • 7km away
114 km S of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep • 8km away
123 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 8km away
120 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 9km away
120 km S of Akureyri, Iceland
10.0km deep • 9km away
118 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 9km away
110 km WNW of Höfn, Iceland
10.0km deep • 9km away
Coordinates
64.6410°N, -17.5280°E
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
An eruption at Bárðarbunga in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Bárðarbunga's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 17.7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 5 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Bárðarbunga's most recent known eruption was 2015 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Bárðarbunga is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Vatnajökull, Iceland, rising to 2,009 m.
About 50 people live within 30 km of Bárðarbunga and roughly 5,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Bárðarbunga is located in Vatnajökull, Iceland, at 64.641°, -17.528°, with a summit elevation of 2,009 m.