Stratovolcano โข BARMM, Philippines
Historic site. Volcanic status debated but included in PHIVOLCS potentially active list.
Very unlikely near-term
Bud Dajo has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Our model estimates a 0.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~400 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was Holocene.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories. How this is calculated โ
0.4%
1-year
0%
30-day
~400y
recurrence
5.952ยฐ, 121.072ยฐ ยท Philippines ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
Sulu, BARMM ยท Stratovolcano
very low confidenceยท 0 stationsยท no hazard map
๐ General awareness sufficient.
Near the long-run baseline โ only background factors are mildly elevated.
How this number is built
What's driving it
b=0.68 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=579
Activity level 1/3
No significant indicators.
Near the long-run baseline โ only background factors are mildly elevated.
b = 0.68 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=579
Low b-value (0.68) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
Basis: GutenbergโRichter b-value (Aki 1965; Wiemer & Wyss 2000)
Activity level 1/3
A vigorous open hydrothermal system raises the chance of steam-driven (phreatic) activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS hydrothermal monitoring
Status-based estimate (~1 per 400 yr)
Anchor โ the average eruption frequency this volcano has shown historically.
Basis: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program eruption record
Alert Level 0
No significant unrest โ eruption not expected in the near term.
Basis: PHIVOLCS Volcano Alert Level System
Recurrence interval not well constrained
No data-derived recurrence interval โ repose effect not modeled.
Basis: Weibull/renewal repose model (Bebbington & Lai 1996; Marzocchi & Bebbington 2012)
No eruptions in the last 10 years.
Volcanic activity clusters in episodes โ recent eruptions raise near-term probability.
Basis: GVP eruption history
No qualifying large earthquakes in range/time window
Large nearby earthquakes can perturb the magma/hydrothermal system (static + dynamic stress).
Basis: Nishimura (2017) GRL 44; Jenkins et al. (2024) Volcanica
0 events within 15 km ยท 0.0/day
Elevated shallow, near-field seismicity can indicate magma or fluid movement.
Basis: Volcano-seismic monitoring (PHIVOLCS / USGS)
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
Basis: Hypocenter migration (Roman & Cashman 2006)
No acceleration detected
Accelerating seismicity can precede failure of the edifice/conduit.
Basis: Material-failure forecasting (Voight 1988; Kilburn 2003)
No significant clustering
Swarms and clusters indicate stress concentration or fluid migration beneath the edifice.
Basis: Seismic cluster analysis
No data-derived recurrence interval โ repose effect not modeled.
Detailed instrument readouts
Normal โ no significant unrest
0.68 ยฑ 0.03
Mc 2.2 ยท n=579
Low b-value (0.68) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
No acceleration detected
859
analyzed
213
M3+
25
M4+
7
M5+
0
<5km deep
0
<15km away
0.0
ev/day
Smithsonian GVP eruption frequency โ about one eruption every ~400 years.
Normal โ no significant unrest reported.
Product of b-value, depth migration, acceleration, triggering & swarm signals.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โModeled from PHIVOLCS alert level + live seismicity + eruption history. See the Risk Analysis dashboard for all volcanoes side by side.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
600m
Elevation
Holocene
Last Eruption
Stratovolcano
Type
โ
Recorded Eruptions
~400y
Avg. Recurrence
Holocene
Last Eruption
Baseline eruption rate derived from Smithsonian GVP confirmed-eruption frequency. Current eruption probability (incorporating PHIVOLCS alert level and live seismicity) is on the Risk Analysis dashboard.
11 km N of Bato Bato, Philippines
10.0km deep โข 26km away
41 km SE of Kalang, Philippines
50.9km deep โข 70km away
26 km SSW of Pandan Niog, Philippines
10.0km deep โข 71km away
29 km NNE of Tumbagaan, Philippines
15.5km deep โข 82km away
28 km W of Pandan Niog, Philippines
10.0km deep โข 90km away
48 km W of Pandan Niog, Philippines
10.0km deep โข 111km away
62 km WSW of Pandan Niog, Philippines
50.9km deep โข 114km away
91 km S of Tabiauan, Philippines
10.0km deep โข 120km away
082 km N 15ยฐ E of Pangutaran (Sulu)
33.0km deep โข 123km away
094 km S 17ยฐ E of Tongkil (Sulu)
47.0km deep โข 131km away
87 km SSE of Tabiauan, Philippines
10.0km deep โข 140km away
103 km S 19ยฐ E of Tongkil (Sulu)
47.0km deep โข 141km away
Coordinates
5.9520ยฐN, 121.0720ยฐE
Region
Philippines and SE Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Bud Dajo has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Based on Bud Dajo's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 0.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 400 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
Bud Dajo's most recent known eruption was Holocene (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Bud Dajo is classified as potentially active. It is a stratovolcano in BARMM, Philippines, rising to 600 m.
About 45,000 people live within 30 km of Bud Dajo. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Bud Dajo is located in BARMM, Philippines, at 5.952ยฐ, 121.072ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 600 m.