Caldera โข Italy, Italy
Unlikely in any given year
Campi Flegrei erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~30 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1538.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.2%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~30y
recurrence
40.827ยฐ, 14.139ยฐ ยท Italy ยท 10 nearby earthquakes
3.2%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~30y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 30 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
20 dated eruptions over ~10018 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~3.2% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 2.3โ4.5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
cataclysmic ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
20 dated eruptions over ~10018 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
458m
Elevation
1538
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
16 km SSE of Sant'Angelo, Italy
375.0km deep โข 31km away
5 km WSW of Licinella-Torre di Paestum, Italy
299.4km deep โข 83km away
4 km WNW of Agropoli, Italy
299.6km deep โข 85km away
2 km NNW of Montagano, Italy
7.4km deep โข 103km away
90 km SSW of Anacapri, Italy
414.8km deep โข 119km away
2 km SW of Villavallelonga, Italy
10.0km deep โข 123km away
3 km NNW of Guardialfiera, Italy
3.2km deep โข 124km away
2 km SE of Palata, Italy
11.6km deep โข 129km away
1 km SE of Palata, Italy
10.0km deep โข 130km away
103 km SSW of Anacapri, Italy
409.5km deep โข 131km away
Coordinates
40.8270ยฐN, 14.1390ยฐE
Region
Mediterranean and Western Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Campi Flegrei erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Campi Flegrei's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 30 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Campi Flegrei's most recent known eruption was 1538 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Campi Flegrei is classified as active. It is a caldera in Italy, Italy, rising to 458 m.
About 4,000,000 people live within 30 km of Campi Flegrei and roughly 8,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Campi Flegrei is located in Italy, Italy, at 40.827ยฐ, 14.139ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 458 m.