Stratovolcano โข Java, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Cereme erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 5.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~17 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1951.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
5.9%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~17y
recurrence
-6.892ยฐ, 108.400ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
5.9%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~17y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 17 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
7 eruptions over ~253 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 3.3โ10.3% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
7 eruptions over ~253 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,078m
Elevation
1951
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
13 km NW of Sumedang Utara, Indonesia
12.2km deep โข 65km away
20 km W of Sidareja, Indonesia
114.6km deep โข 70km away
22 km S of Ciamis, Indonesia
101.1km deep โข 71km away
12 km SSW of Kawalu, Indonesia
90.0km deep โข 71km away
25 km NE of Lembang, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 78km away
9 km W of Paseh, Indonesia
133.8km deep โข 82km away
27 km SSW of Kawalu, Indonesia
107.7km deep โข 86km away
28 km S of Kawalu, Indonesia
93.5km deep โข 87km away
20 km ESE of Banjar, Indonesia
120.0km deep โข 95km away
5 km SW of Banjaran, Indonesia
133.4km deep โข 96km away
24 km ESE of Banjar, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 96km away
14 km E of Banjar, Indonesia
6.9km deep โข 98km away
Coordinates
-6.8920ยฐN, 108.4000ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Cereme erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Cereme's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 5.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 17 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Cereme's most recent known eruption was 1951 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Cereme is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Java, Indonesia, rising to 3,078 m.
About 3,000,000 people live within 30 km of Cereme and roughly 20,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Cereme is located in Java, Indonesia, at -6.892ยฐ, 108.400ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,078 m.