Caldera • Southern Andes, Chile
Unlikely in any given year
Chaitén erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 2.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~38 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2011.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
2.6%
1-year
0.2%
30-day
~38y
recurrence
-42.833°, -72.646° · Chile · 12 nearby earthquakes
2.6%
1-year probability
0.2%
30-day
~38y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 38 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
5 eruptions over ~9761 yr — a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 5. ~2.6% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity — the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 1.4–4.6% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
cataclysmic · high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 5.
5 eruptions over ~9761 yr — a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
1,122m
Elevation
2011
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
61 km WSW of Lago Puelo, Argentina
12.3km deep • 67km away
56 km WSW of Lago Puelo, Argentina
146.0km deep • 70km away
51 km SSW of Lago Puelo, Argentina
9.1km deep • 71km away
29 km SW of Chonchi, Chile
30.2km deep • 110km away
17 km W of Chonchi, Chile
47.7km deep • 111km away
68 km WNW of La Junta, Chile
77.4km deep • 117km away
41 km SW of Quellón, Chile
38.0km deep • 123km away
38 km WSW of Quellón, Chile
27.6km deep • 123km away
39 km WSW of Chonchi, Chile
23.9km deep • 128km away
33 km WNW of Chonchi, Chile
26.6km deep • 128km away
34 km W of Castro, Chile
44.8km deep • 132km away
49 km SW of Quellón, Chile
30.4km deep • 132km away
Coordinates
-42.8330°N, -72.6460°E
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Chaitén erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Chaitén's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 2.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 38 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Chaitén's most recent known eruption was 2011 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Chaitén is classified as active. It is a caldera in Southern Andes, Chile, rising to 1,122 m.
About 20,000 people live within 30 km of Chaitén and roughly 100,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Chaitén is located in Southern Andes, Chile, at -42.833°, -72.646°, with a summit elevation of 1,122 m.