Stratovolcano โข Aleutians, USA
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Cleveland in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 28.7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~3 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
28.7%
1-year
2.7%
30-day
~3y
recurrence
52.822ยฐ, -169.945ยฐ ยท USA ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
28.7%
1-year probability
2.7%
30-day
~3y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 3 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
30 dated eruptions over ~127 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 21.5โ37.8% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
30 dated eruptions over ~127 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,730m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
72 km WSW of Nikolski, Alaska
11.8km deep โข 6km away
88 km WSW of Nikolski, Alaska
80.4km deep โข 17km away
91 km W of Nikolski, Alaska
83.7km deep โข 22km away
55 km WSW of Nikolski, Alaska
10.0km deep โข 25km away
46 km W of Nikolski, Alaska
6.6km deep โข 27km away
69 km WNW of Nikolski, Alaska
80.6km deep โข 30km away
96 km WSW of Nikolski, Alaska
46.3km deep โข 36km away
77 km SW of Nikolski, Alaska
47.0km deep โข 39km away
101 km WSW of Nikolski, Alaska
54.5km deep โข 43km away
71 km WNW of Nikolski, Alaska
112.0km deep โข 46km away
105 km WNW of Nikolski, Alaska
153.2km deep โข 47km away
93 km SW of Nikolski, Alaska
8.0km deep โข 51km away
Coordinates
52.8222ยฐN, -169.9450ยฐE
Region
Canada and Western USA
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Cleveland in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Cleveland's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 28.7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 3 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Cleveland's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Cleveland is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Aleutians, USA, rising to 1,730 m.
About 100 people live within 30 km of Cleveland and roughly 500 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Cleveland is located in Aleutians, USA, at 52.822ยฐ, -169.945ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,730 m.