Stratovolcano โข Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Colima in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 26.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~3 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2019.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
26.1%
1-year
2.5%
30-day
~3y
recurrence
19.514ยฐ, -103.617ยฐ ยท Mexico ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
26.1%
1-year probability
2.5%
30-day
~3y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 3 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
85 dated eruptions over ~9709 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~1.2% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 19.4โ34.5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
85 dated eruptions over ~9709 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,850m
Elevation
2019
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
5 km N of La Higuera, Mexico
10.0km deep โข 23km away
9 km SE of Tequesquitlรกn, Mexico
32.8km deep โข 90km away
18 km SSW of El Colomo, Mexico
35.0km deep โข 101km away
15 km W of Aguililla, Mexico
75.9km deep โข 111km away
7 km WSW of La Placita de Morelos, Mexico
41.5km deep โข 113km away
37 km WSW of Cerro de Ortega, Mexico
35.5km deep โข 114km away
12 km SSE of Aquila, Mexico
35.0km deep โข 114km away
35 km SW of Cerro de Ortega, Mexico
10.0km deep โข 114km away
18 km SE of Aquila, Mexico
39.0km deep โข 116km away
24 km WSW of La Placita de Morelos, Mexico
10.0km deep โข 117km away
21 km ESE of Aquila, Mexico
35.0km deep โข 117km away
29 km SSW of El Naranjo, Mexico
12.0km deep โข 121km away
Coordinates
19.5140ยฐN, -103.6170ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Colima in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Colima's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 26.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 3 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Colima's most recent known eruption was 2019 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Colima is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, rising to 3,850 m.
About 500,000 people live within 30 km of Colima and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Colima is located in Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico, at 19.514ยฐ, -103.617ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,850 m.