Complex volcano โข Halmahera, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Dukono erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~29 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.4%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~29y
recurrence
1.693ยฐ, 127.894ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
3.4%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~29y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 29 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
5 eruptions over ~476 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.9โ6.1% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
5 eruptions over ~476 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,229m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
31 km WSW of Tobelo, Indonesia
7.7km deep โข 19km away
31 km WSW of Tobelo, Indonesia
8.1km deep โข 19km away
33 km SW of Tobelo, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 22km away
31 km WNW of Tobelo, Indonesia
19.5km deep โข 23km away
35 km SW of Tobelo, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 24km away
33 km SSW of Tobelo, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 25km away
37 km SW of Tobelo, Indonesia
9.3km deep โข 26km away
33 km SSW of Tobelo, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 27km away
34 km S of Tobelo, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 31km away
17 km ENE of Tobelo, Indonesia
123.6km deep โข 31km away
28 km SE of Tobelo, Indonesia
24.0km deep โข 38km away
33 km N of Tobelo, Indonesia
102.2km deep โข 39km away
Coordinates
1.6930ยฐN, 127.8940ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Dukono erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Dukono's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 29 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Dukono's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Dukono is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Halmahera, Indonesia, rising to 1,229 m.
About 50,000 people live within 30 km of Dukono and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Dukono is located in Halmahera, Indonesia, at 1.693ยฐ, 127.894ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,229 m.