Somma volcano โข Northern Kurils, Russia
Unlikely in any given year
Ebeko erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~16 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.2%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~16y
recurrence
50.686ยฐ, 156.014ยฐ ยท Russia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.2%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~16y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 16 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a somma volcano prior by how complete the record is.
21 dated eruptions over ~2414 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.5โ8.6% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
21 dated eruptions over ~2414 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,156m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Somma volcano
Type
5 km ESE of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
93.8km deep โข 13km away
13 km N of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
112.1km deep โข 16km away
12 km E of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
103.4km deep โข 20km away
13 km E of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
137.0km deep โข 21km away
18 km ESE of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
84.6km deep โข 26km away
24 km SE of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
88.5km deep โข 30km away
29 km NNE of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
141.7km deep โข 32km away
34 km SSW of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
118.0km deep โข 33km away
29 km E of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
12.2km deep โข 38km away
32 km SE of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
79.3km deep โข 38km away
38 km NNE of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
148.0km deep โข 41km away
33 km ESE of Severo-Kurilโsk, Russia
109.7km deep โข 41km away
Coordinates
50.6860ยฐN, 156.0140ยฐE
Region
Kuril Islands
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Ebeko erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Ebeko's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 16 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ebeko's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ebeko is classified as active. It is a somma volcano in Northern Kurils, Russia, rising to 1,156 m.
About 10,000 people live within 30 km of Ebeko and roughly 15,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ebeko is located in Northern Kurils, Russia, at 50.686ยฐ, 156.014ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,156 m.