Stratovolcano โข Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Ebulobo erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~22 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1969.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.4%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~22y
recurrence
-8.820ยฐ, 121.180ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.4%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~22y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 22 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.3โ14.6% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,124m
Elevation
1969
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
44 km WSW of Ende, Indonesia
96.7km deep โข 19km away
65 km WNW of Ende, Indonesia
195.7km deep โข 31km away
26 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia
183.4km deep โข 52km away
69 km ENE of Ruteng, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 53km away
60 km ENE of Ruteng, Indonesia
187.9km deep โข 56km away
Flores region, Indonesia
173.0km deep โข 57km away
52 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 57km away
58 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia
183.3km deep โข 61km away
45 km N of Ende, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 62km away
89 km NW of Ende, Indonesia
21.6km deep โข 68km away
58 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 69km away
42 km N of Ende, Indonesia
181.6km deep โข 69km away
Coordinates
-8.8200ยฐN, 121.1800ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Ebulobo erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Ebulobo's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 22 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ebulobo's most recent known eruption was 1969 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ebulobo is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, rising to 2,124 m.
About 150,000 people live within 30 km of Ebulobo and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ebulobo is located in Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, at -8.820ยฐ, 121.180ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,124 m.