Stratovolcano โข Java, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Gede in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 11% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~9 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1957.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
11%
1-year
0.9%
30-day
~9y
recurrence
-6.780ยฐ, 106.980ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
11%
1-year probability
0.9%
30-day
~9y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 9 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
26 dated eruptions over ~210 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 8โ15% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
26 dated eruptions over ~210 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,958m
Elevation
1957
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
11 km NE of Sukabumi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 6km away
10 km NNE of Sukabumi, Indonesia
10.8km deep โข 7km away
12 km E of Sukabumi, Indonesia
155.1km deep โข 17km away
9 km SSE of Cicurug, Indonesia
123.6km deep โข 18km away
17 km NW of Ciranjang-hilir, Indonesia
107.0km deep โข 20km away
16 km W of Sukabumi, Indonesia
113.0km deep โข 28km away
11 km W of Cicurug, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 33km away
13 km S of Ciranjang-hilir, Indonesia
116.4km deep โข 35km away
18 km SSW of Sukabumi, Indonesia
62.9km deep โข 35km away
19 km S of Sukabumi, Indonesia
59.6km deep โข 36km away
18 km E of Pelabuhanratu, Indonesia
72.2km deep โข 37km away
24 km S of Sukabumi, Indonesia
13.4km deep โข 40km away
Coordinates
-6.7800ยฐN, 106.9800ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Gede in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Gede's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 11% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 9 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Gede's most recent known eruption was 1957 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Gede is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Java, Indonesia, rising to 2,958 m.
About 8,000,000 people live within 30 km of Gede and roughly 35,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Gede is located in Java, Indonesia, at -6.780ยฐ, 106.980ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,958 m.