Caldera โข Kamchatka, Russia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Gorely in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 17.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~5 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2010.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
17.3%
1-year
1.6%
30-day
~5y
recurrence
52.558ยฐ, 158.030ยฐ ยท Russia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
17.3%
1-year probability
1.6%
30-day
~5y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 5 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
53 dated eruptions over ~9410 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 12.7โ23.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
53 dated eruptions over ~9410 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,829m
Elevation
2010
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
80 km SSW of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
77.9km deep โข 38km away
72 km SSE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
10.0km deep โข 51km away
89 km S of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
84.6km deep โข 52km away
70 km SSE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
71.1km deep โข 55km away
47 km SE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
80.4km deep โข 55km away
80 km SSE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
73.7km deep โข 57km away
39 km SE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
10.0km deep โข 57km away
96 km S of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
82.9km deep โข 58km away
50 km SE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
72.0km deep โข 65km away
90 km SSE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
87.4km deep โข 65km away
108 km S of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
83.2km deep โข 66km away
104 km S of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
23.0km deep โข 68km away
Coordinates
52.5580ยฐN, 158.0300ยฐE
Region
Kamchatka and Mainland Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Gorely in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Gorely's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 17.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 5 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Gorely's most recent known eruption was 2010 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Gorely is classified as active. It is a caldera in Kamchatka, Russia, rising to 1,829 m.
About 15,000 people live within 30 km of Gorely and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Gorely is located in Kamchatka, Russia, at 52.558ยฐ, 158.030ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,829 m.