Stratovolcano โข South Iceland, Iceland
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Hekla in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 19.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~5 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2000.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
19.1%
1-year
1.7%
30-day
~5y
recurrence
63.983ยฐ, -19.667ยฐ ยท Iceland ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
19.1%
1-year probability
1.7%
30-day
~5y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 5 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
65 dated eruptions over ~7850 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~19.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 14โ25.6% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
cataclysmic ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
65 dated eruptions over ~7850 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,491m
Elevation
2000
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
63 km E of Selfoss, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 3km away
22 km NNW of Hvolsvรถllur, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 32km away
34 km ESE of Hvolsvรถllur, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 39km away
59 km ENE of Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 46km away
14 km NNW of Hveragerรฐi, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 82km away
71 km ENE of Borgarnes, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 89km away
11 km ESE of Hafnarfjรถrรฐur, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 100km away
128 km W of Hรถfn, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 101km away
5 km SSW of Mosfellsbรฆr, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 103km away
9 km SE of Hafnarfjรถrรฐur, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 103km away
129 km W of Hรถfn, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 104km away
3 km ESE of Garรฐabรฆr, Iceland
10.0km deep โข 107km away
Coordinates
63.9833ยฐN, -19.6667ยฐE
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Hekla in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Hekla's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 19.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 5 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Hekla's most recent known eruption was 2000 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Hekla is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in South Iceland, Iceland, rising to 1,491 m.
About 10,000 people live within 30 km of Hekla and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Hekla is located in South Iceland, Iceland, at 63.983ยฐ, -19.667ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,491 m.