Stratovolcano โข Northern Mindanao, Philippines
1951 eruption killed 500+ people via pyroclastic flows. Island has no evacuation route.
Unlikely in any given year
Hibok-Hibok erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~50 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1953.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.8%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~50y
recurrence
9.203ยฐ, 124.673ยฐ ยท Philippines ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
Camiguin, Northern Mindanao ยท Stratovolcano
low confidenceยท 4 stationsยท hazard map โ
๐ No specific action required.
Near the long-run baseline โ only background factors are mildly elevated.
How this number is built
What's driving it
Activity level 2/3
b=0.68 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=606
Minimal indicators detected.
Near the long-run baseline โ only background factors are mildly elevated.
Activity level 2/3
A vigorous open hydrothermal system raises the chance of steam-driven (phreatic) activity.
Basis: PHIVOLCS hydrothermal monitoring
b = 0.68 (low) ยท Mc 2.2 ยท n=606
Low b-value (0.68) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
Basis: GutenbergโRichter b-value (Aki 1965; Wiemer & Wyss 2000)
Status-based estimate (~1 per 50 yr)
Anchor โ the average eruption frequency this volcano has shown historically.
Basis: Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program eruption record
Alert Level 0
No significant unrest โ eruption not expected in the near term.
Basis: PHIVOLCS Volcano Alert Level System
Recurrence interval not well constrained
No data-derived recurrence interval โ repose effect not modeled.
Basis: Weibull/renewal repose model (Bebbington & Lai 1996; Marzocchi & Bebbington 2012)
No eruptions in the last 10 years.
Volcanic activity clusters in episodes โ recent eruptions raise near-term probability.
Basis: GVP eruption history
No qualifying large earthquakes in range/time window
Large nearby earthquakes can perturb the magma/hydrothermal system (static + dynamic stress).
Basis: Nishimura (2017) GRL 44; Jenkins et al. (2024) Volcanica
0 events within 15 km ยท 0.0/day
Elevated shallow, near-field seismicity can indicate magma or fluid movement.
Basis: Volcano-seismic monitoring (PHIVOLCS / USGS)
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
Basis: Hypocenter migration (Roman & Cashman 2006)
No acceleration detected
Accelerating seismicity can precede failure of the edifice/conduit.
Basis: Material-failure forecasting (Voight 1988; Kilburn 2003)
No significant clustering
Swarms and clusters indicate stress concentration or fluid migration beneath the edifice.
Basis: Seismic cluster analysis
No data-derived recurrence interval โ repose effect not modeled.
Stratovolcano (lava domes) โ VEI 1โ3, deadly PDCs (pyroclastic density currents)
Typical explosivity โ VEI 2
Detailed instrument readouts
Normal โ no significant unrest
0.68 ยฑ 0.03
Mc 2.2 ยท n=606
Low b-value (0.68) suggests high stress accumulation and potential for larger events
No coherent migration detected
Insufficient data for depth migration analysis
No acceleration detected
859
analyzed
213
M3+
25
M4+
7
M5+
0
<5km deep
0
<15km away
0.0
ev/day
Smithsonian GVP eruption frequency โ about one eruption every ~50 years.
Normal โ no significant unrest reported.
Product of b-value, depth migration, acceleration, triggering & swarm signals.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โModeled from PHIVOLCS alert level + live seismicity + eruption history. See the Risk Analysis dashboard for all volcanoes side by side.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
Only 4 recorded eruption(s) over ~126 yr โ likely under-recorded, so the estimate leans partly on the volcano type.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,332m
Elevation
1953
Last Eruption
Stratovolcano
Type
โ
Recorded Eruptions
~50y
Avg. Recurrence
1953
Last Eruption
Baseline eruption rate derived from Smithsonian GVP confirmed-eruption frequency. Current eruption probability (incorporating PHIVOLCS alert level and live seismicity) is on the Risk Analysis dashboard.
Stratovolcano (lava domes) โ VEI 1โ3, deadly PDCs (pyroclastic density currents)
Typical explosivity โ VEI 2
Live risk direction, the full evidence ledger and seismic precursors are on the Risk Analysis dashboard.
026 km S 19ยฐ E of Jagna (Bohol)
17.0km deep โข 35km away
022 km S 07ยฐ W of Anda (Bohol)
32.0km deep โข 41km away
021 km S 63ยฐ E of Anda (Bohol)
40.0km deep โข 52km away
005 km S 48ยฐ E of Anda (Bohol)
3.0km deep โข 57km away
038 km N 32ยฐ W of Gitagum (Misamis Oriental)
8.0km deep โข 61km away
011 km S 24ยฐ E of Dimiao (Bohol)
7.0km deep โข 62km away
030 km S 90ยฐ E of Anda (Bohol)
3.0km deep โข 63km away
017 km N 73ยฐ E of Anda (Bohol)
2.0km deep โข 65km away
007 km N 39ยฐ E of Anda (Bohol)
8.0km deep โข 66km away
025 km S 16ยฐ W of Limasawa (Southern Leyte)
26.0km deep โข 66km away
006 km N 16ยฐ W of Jagna (Bohol)
33.0km deep โข 67km away
024 km S 36ยฐ W of Limasawa (Southern Leyte)
23.0km deep โข 67km away
Coordinates
9.2030ยฐN, 124.6730ยฐE
Region
Philippines and SE Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Hibok-Hibok erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Hibok-Hibok's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 50 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
Hibok-Hibok's most recent known eruption was 1953 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Hibok-Hibok is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Northern Mindanao, Philippines, rising to 1,332 m.
About 92,000 people live within 30 km of Hibok-Hibok. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Hibok-Hibok is located in Northern Mindanao, Philippines, at 9.203ยฐ, 124.673ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,332 m.