Complex volcano โข Italy, Italy
Unlikely in any given year
Ischia erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~25 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1302.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.9%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~25y
recurrence
40.731ยฐ, 13.897ยฐ ยท Italy ยท 10 nearby earthquakes
3.9%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~25y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 25 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
24 dated eruptions over ~8852 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 2.8โ5.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
24 dated eruptions over ~8852 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
789m
Elevation
1302
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
16 km SSE of Sant'Angelo, Italy
375.0km deep โข 19km away
5 km WSW of Licinella-Torre di Paestum, Italy
299.4km deep โข 95km away
4 km WNW of Agropoli, Italy
299.6km deep โข 97km away
90 km SSW of Anacapri, Italy
414.8km deep โข 106km away
103 km SSW of Anacapri, Italy
409.5km deep โข 116km away
2 km NNW of Montagano, Italy
7.4km deep โข 122km away
2 km SW of Villavallelonga, Italy
10.0km deep โข 128km away
3 km NNW of Guardialfiera, Italy
3.2km deep โข 143km away
2 km SE of Palata, Italy
11.6km deep โข 148km away
1 km SE of Palata, Italy
10.0km deep โข 149km away
Coordinates
40.7310ยฐN, 13.8970ยฐE
Region
Mediterranean and Western Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Ischia erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Ischia's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 25 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ischia's most recent known eruption was 1302 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ischia is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Italy, Italy, rising to 789 m.
About 3,000,000 people live within 30 km of Ischia and roughly 6,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ischia is located in Italy, Italy, at 40.731ยฐ, 13.897ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 789 m.