Caldera โข Sunda Strait, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Krakatau in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 15.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~6 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2023.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
15.9%
1-year
1.4%
30-day
~6y
recurrence
-6.102ยฐ, 105.423ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
15.9%
1-year probability
1.4%
30-day
~6y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 6 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
58 dated eruptions over ~1774 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6. ~0.7% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 11.7โ21.6% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 6
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6.
58 dated eruptions over ~1774 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
813m
Elevation
2023
Last Eruption
VEI 6
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
45 km NW of Labuan, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 9km away
64 km NW of Labuan, Indonesia
50.2km deep โข 11km away
35 km WNW of Labuan, Indonesia
15.9km deep โข 22km away
69 km W of Labuan, Indonesia
50.4km deep โข 31km away
53 km W of Labuan, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 32km away
53 km W of Labuan, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 34km away
51 km W of Labuan, Indonesia
83.5km deep โข 34km away
57 km WNW of Serang, Indonesia
154.7km deep โข 43km away
60 km NW of Serang, Indonesia
24.3km deep โข 45km away
82 km W of Labuan, Indonesia
63.6km deep โข 47km away
91 km W of Labuan, Indonesia
35.0km deep โข 48km away
44 km WNW of Serang, Indonesia
171.0km deep โข 48km away
Coordinates
-6.1020ยฐN, 105.4230ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Krakatau in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Krakatau's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 15.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 6 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Krakatau's most recent known eruption was 2023 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Krakatau is classified as active. It is a caldera in Sunda Strait, Indonesia, rising to 813 m.
About 500,000 people live within 30 km of Krakatau and roughly 8,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Krakatau is located in Sunda Strait, Indonesia, at -6.102ยฐ, 105.423ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 813 m.