Stratovolcano โข Honshu, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Kusatsu-Shirane erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 8.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~11 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2018.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
8.9%
1-year
0.8%
30-day
~11y
recurrence
36.618ยฐ, 138.536ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
8.9%
1-year probability
0.8%
30-day
~11y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 11 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
31 dated eruptions over ~8568 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 6.5โ12.3% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
31 dated eruptions over ~8568 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,176m
Elevation
2018
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
2 km SSE of Iiyama, Japan
1.6km deep โข 27km away
17 km E of Iiyama, Japan
10.0km deep โข 27km away
9 km ENE of Komoro, Japan
169.3km deep โข 31km away
23 km ENE of Iiyama, Japan
10.0km deep โข 36km away
12 km ENE of Shibukawa, Japan
11.2km deep โข 55km away
7 km SSE of Hakuba, Japan
9.9km deep โข 57km away
7 km NE of Hotaka, Japan
2.9km deep โข 59km away
1 km ENE of ลmachi, Japan
10.0km deep โข 59km away
6 km ESE of Maebashi, Japan
148.5km deep โข 61km away
10 km SSW of Hakuba, Japan
10.0km deep โข 62km away
12 km NNW of ลmachi, Japan
10.0km deep โข 66km away
29 km ESE of Muikamachi, Japan
10.0km deep โข 71km away
Coordinates
36.6181ยฐN, 138.5358ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Kusatsu-Shirane erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Kusatsu-Shirane's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 8.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 11 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Kusatsu-Shirane's most recent known eruption was 2018 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Kusatsu-Shirane is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Honshu, Japan, rising to 2,176 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Kusatsu-Shirane and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Kusatsu-Shirane is located in Honshu, Japan, at 36.618ยฐ, 138.536ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,176 m.