Stratovolcano โข Southern Andes, Chile
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Llaima in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 18.7% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~5 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2009.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
18.7%
1-year
1.7%
30-day
~5y
recurrence
-38.692ยฐ, -71.729ยฐ ยท Chile ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
18.7%
1-year probability
1.7%
30-day
~5y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 5 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
58 dated eruptions over ~9419 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~0.8% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 13.7โ25.1% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
58 dated eruptions over ~9419 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,125m
Elevation
2009
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
34 km NNE of Pucรณn, Chile
119.8km deep โข 35km away
26 km NNW of Villarrica, Chile
94.0km deep โข 63km away
9 km WSW of Pucรณn, Chile
107.5km deep โข 75km away
17 km SE of Pucรณn, Chile
115.5km deep โข 77km away
15 km ENE of Loncoche, Chile
88.0km deep โข 95km away
19 km NNE of Panguipulli, Chile
80.6km deep โข 99km away
16 km SSE of Nueva Imperial, Chile
46.2km deep โข 100km away
5 km W of Traiguรฉn, Chile
67.6km deep โข 101km away
46 km NNW of San Martรญn de los Andes, Argentina
140.0km deep โข 124km away
19 km SE of Loncopuรฉ, Argentina
186.0km deep โข 125km away
38 km ESE of Panguipulli, Chile
10.0km deep โข 128km away
31 km WNW of Junรญn de los Andes, Argentina
159.8km deep โข 132km away
Coordinates
-38.6920ยฐN, -71.7290ยฐE
Region
South America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Llaima in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Llaima's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 18.7% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 5 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Llaima's most recent known eruption was 2009 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Llaima is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Southern Andes, Chile, rising to 3,125 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Llaima and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Llaima is located in Southern Andes, Chile, at -38.692ยฐ, -71.729ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,125 m.