Complex volcano โข Sumatra, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Marapi in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 31.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~3 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
31.3%
1-year
3%
30-day
~3y
recurrence
-0.381ยฐ, 100.473ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
31.3%
1-year probability
3%
30-day
~3y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 3 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
70 dated eruptions over ~256 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 23.5โ40.9% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
70 dated eruptions over ~256 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,891m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
17 km SSE of Bukittinggi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 8km away
17 km NE of Pariaman, Indonesia
82.1km deep โข 31km away
20 km NNE of Padang, Indonesia
93.1km deep โข 46km away
38 km NW of Bukittinggi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 52km away
17 km NW of Padang, Indonesia
97.0km deep โข 54km away
47 km WNW of Bukittinggi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 61km away
38 km NW of Pariaman, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 63km away
50 km NW of Bukittinggi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 64km away
55 km NW of Bukittinggi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 69km away
56 km NW of Bukittinggi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 71km away
58 km NW of Bukittinggi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 71km away
24 km ESE of Solok, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 72km away
Coordinates
-0.3810ยฐN, 100.4730ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Marapi in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Marapi's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 31.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 3 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Marapi's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Marapi is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Sumatra, Indonesia, rising to 2,891 m.
About 1,000,000 people live within 30 km of Marapi and roughly 3,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Marapi is located in Sumatra, Indonesia, at -0.381ยฐ, 100.473ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,891 m.