Shield volcano โข Hawaii, USA
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Mauna Loa in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 32.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~3 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2022.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
32.5%
1-year
3.2%
30-day
~3y
recurrence
19.476ยฐ, -155.605ยฐ ยท USA ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
32.5%
1-year probability
3.2%
30-day
~3y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 3 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a shield volcano prior by how complete the record is.
111 dated eruptions over ~10072 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 24.5โ42.3% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
effusive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
111 dated eruptions over ~10072 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
4,169m
Elevation
2022
Last Eruption
VEI 0
Explosivity Index
Shield volcano
Type
13 km S of Honaunau-Napoopoo, Hawaii
22.6km deep โข 29km away
9 km WSW of Volcano, Hawaii
2.6km deep โข 31km away
7 km SW of Volcano, Hawaii
-0.4km deep โข 34km away
7 km SW of Volcano, Hawaii
-1.0km deep โข 34km away
7 km SW of Volcano, Hawaii
1.4km deep โข 34km away
7 km SW of Volcano, Hawaii
0.2km deep โข 34km away
7 km SW of Volcano, Hawaii
-0.5km deep โข 34km away
6 km WSW of Volcano, Hawaii
-0.0km deep โข 34km away
2 km SW of Pฤhala, Hawaii
37.0km deep โข 34km away
6 km WSW of Volcano, Hawaii
0.2km deep โข 34km away
6 km WSW of Volcano, Hawaii
0.3km deep โข 34km away
7 km SW of Volcano, Hawaii
0.1km deep โข 34km away
Coordinates
19.4756ยฐN, -155.6054ยฐE
Region
Hawaii and Pacific Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Mauna Loa in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Mauna Loa's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 32.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 3 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Mauna Loa's most recent known eruption was 2022 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Mauna Loa is classified as active. It is a shield volcano in Hawaii, USA, rising to 4,169 m.
About 80,000 people live within 30 km of Mauna Loa and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Mauna Loa is located in Hawaii, USA, at 19.476ยฐ, -155.605ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 4,169 m.