Shield volcano โข Bay of Plenty, New Zealand
Unlikely in any given year
Mayor Island (Tuhua) erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.6% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~15 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 4320 BCE.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.6%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~15y
recurrence
-37.287ยฐ, 176.256ยฐ ยท New Zealand ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.6%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~15y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 15 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a shield volcano prior by how complete the record is.
43 dated eruptions over ~9450 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~1.3% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.7โ9.1% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5.
43 dated eruptions over ~9450 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
354m
Elevation
4320 BCE
Last Eruption
VEI 4
Explosivity Index
Shield volcano
Type
40 km N of Maketu, New Zealand
338.8km deep โข 23km away
63 km E of Tairua, New Zealand
442.1km deep โข 39km away
15 km NW of Maketu, New Zealand
190.0km deep โข 42km away
18 km NNE of Maketu, New Zealand
198.8km deep โข 44km away
8 km N of Maketu, New Zealand
226.9km deep โข 48km away
7 km N of Maketu, New Zealand
229.5km deep โข 49km away
15 km ENE of Maketu, New Zealand
289.1km deep โข 56km away
North Island of New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 62km away
7 km ESE of Maketu, New Zealand
173.4km deep โข 62km away
North Island of New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 63km away
59 km NE of Maketu, New Zealand
187.0km deep โข 63km away
12 km SW of Maketu, New Zealand
189.3km deep โข 64km away
Coordinates
-37.2870ยฐN, 176.2560ยฐE
Region
New Zealand to Fiji
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Mayor Island (Tuhua) erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Mayor Island (Tuhua)'s eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.6% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 15 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Mayor Island (Tuhua)'s most recent known eruption was 4320 BCE (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Mayor Island (Tuhua) is classified as active. It is a shield volcano in Bay of Plenty, New Zealand, rising to 354 m.
About 20,000 people live within 30 km of Mayor Island (Tuhua) and roughly 300,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Mayor Island (Tuhua) is located in Bay of Plenty, New Zealand, at -37.287ยฐ, 176.256ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 354 m.