Stratovolcano โข Izu Islands, Japan
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Miyakejima in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 13.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~7 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2013.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
13.4%
1-year
1.2%
30-day
~7y
recurrence
34.094ยฐ, 139.526ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
13.4%
1-year probability
1.2%
30-day
~7y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 7 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
40 dated eruptions over ~8460 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~2.8% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 9.8โ18.2% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
40 dated eruptions over ~8460 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
815m
Elevation
2013
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
105 km SE of Shimoda, Japan
118.1km deep โข 23km away
59 km SE of Shimoda, Japan
139.8km deep โข 27km away
62 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
10.0km deep โข 39km away
50 km ESE of Shimoda, Japan
10.0km deep โข 41km away
46 km ESE of Shimoda, Japan
10.0km deep โข 42km away
41 km SE of Shimoda, Japan
15.5km deep โข 43km away
42 km SE of Shimoda, Japan
10.0km deep โข 43km away
41 km SE of Shimoda, Japan
10.0km deep โข 44km away
38 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
6.4km deep โข 46km away
74 km S of Tateyama, Japan
93.9km deep โข 49km away
125 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
10.0km deep โข 50km away
126 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan
15.2km deep โข 54km away
Coordinates
34.0940ยฐN, 139.5260ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Miyakejima in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Miyakejima's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 13.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 7 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Miyakejima's most recent known eruption was 2013 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Miyakejima is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Izu Islands, Japan, rising to 815 m.
About 5,000 people live within 30 km of Miyakejima and roughly 1,500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Miyakejima is located in Izu Islands, Japan, at 34.094ยฐ, 139.526ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 815 m.