Complex volcano โข Kamchatka, Russia
Unlikely in any given year
Mutnovsky erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~30 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2000.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
3.3%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~30y
recurrence
52.453ยฐ, 158.195ยฐ ยท Russia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
3.3%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~30y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 30 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a complex volcano prior by how complete the record is.
7 eruptions over ~7059 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.8โ5.8% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
7 eruptions over ~7059 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,322m
Elevation
2000
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Complex volcano
Type
80 km SSW of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
77.9km deep โข 26km away
72 km SSE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
10.0km deep โข 36km away
89 km S of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
84.6km deep โข 37km away
80 km SSE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
73.7km deep โข 40km away
96 km S of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
82.9km deep โข 44km away
47 km SE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
80.4km deep โข 47km away
90 km SSE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
87.4km deep โข 49km away
108 km S of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
83.2km deep โข 54km away
79 km SSE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
69.2km deep โข 56km away
50 km SE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
72.0km deep โข 57km away
110 km S of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
69.5km deep โข 60km away
85 km SSE of Vilyuchinsk, Russia
85.0km deep โข 60km away
Coordinates
52.4530ยฐN, 158.1950ยฐE
Region
Kamchatka and Mainland Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Mutnovsky erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Mutnovsky's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 30 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Mutnovsky's most recent known eruption was 2000 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Mutnovsky is classified as active. It is a complex volcano in Kamchatka, Russia, rising to 2,322 m.
About 10,000 people live within 30 km of Mutnovsky and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Mutnovsky is located in Kamchatka, Russia, at 52.453ยฐ, 158.195ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,322 m.