Stratovolcano โข Honshu, Japan
Unlikely in any given year
Nasu erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~14 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1963.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.8%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~14y
recurrence
37.125ยฐ, 139.966ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.8%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~14y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 14 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
21 dated eruptions over ~10513 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.9โ9.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
severe ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 3; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
21 dated eruptions over ~10513 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,917m
Elevation
1963
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
20 km NNE of Kuroiso, Japan
106.0km deep โข 14km away
21 km NW of Yaita, Japan
10.0km deep โข 30km away
10 km W of Hanawa, Japan
98.7km deep โข 35km away
16 km WSW of Hanawa, Japan
116.0km deep โข 36km away
17 km N of Daigo, Japan
94.8km deep โข 38km away
12 km NE of Nikk?, Japan
10.0km deep โข 40km away
13 km NNW of Daigo, Japan
53.0km deep โข 40km away
2 km NE of Asakawa, Japan
98.5km deep โข 41km away
6 km WNW of K?riyama, Japan
99.4km deep โข 45km away
16 km NNE of Daigo, Japan
88.0km deep โข 46km away
8 km SE of Ishikawa, Japan
36.0km deep โข 48km away
11 km SE of Ishikawa, Japan
6.4km deep โข 50km away
Coordinates
37.1247ยฐN, 139.9661ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Nasu erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Nasu's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 14 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Nasu's most recent known eruption was 1963 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Nasu is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Honshu, Japan, rising to 1,917 m.
About 200,000 people live within 30 km of Nasu and roughly 2,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Nasu is located in Honshu, Japan, at 37.125ยฐ, 139.966ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,917 m.