Stratovolcano โข North Island, New Zealand
Unlikely in any given year
Ngauruhoe erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.4% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~22 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1977.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.4%
1-year
0.4%
30-day
~22y
recurrence
-39.157ยฐ, 175.632ยฐ ยท New Zealand ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.4%
1-year probability
0.4%
30-day
~22y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 22 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.3โ14.6% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,291m
Elevation
1977
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
38 km NNW of Waiouru, New Zealand
93.7km deep โข 18km away
4 km SSW of Turangi, New Zealand
125.6km deep โข 20km away
14 km ESE of Turangi, New Zealand
99.1km deep โข 29km away
North Island of New Zealand
84.2km deep โข 30km away
13 km NNE of Turangi, New Zealand
100.7km deep โข 37km away
19 km NNW of Turangi, New Zealand
124.9km deep โข 38km away
23 km NNW of Turangi, New Zealand
4.6km deep โข 40km away
20 km SW of Taupo, New Zealand
5.4km deep โข 46km away
41 km ENE of Waiouru, New Zealand
60.7km deep โข 46km away
58 km WNW of Turangi, New Zealand
234.8km deep โข 51km away
13 km SW of Taupo, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 52km away
65 km WNW of Waiouru, New Zealand
152.6km deep โข 52km away
Coordinates
-39.1570ยฐN, 175.6320ยฐE
Region
New Zealand to Fiji
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Ngauruhoe erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Ngauruhoe's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.4% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 22 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ngauruhoe's most recent known eruption was 1977 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ngauruhoe is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in North Island, New Zealand, rising to 2,291 m.
About 30,000 people live within 30 km of Ngauruhoe and roughly 200,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ngauruhoe is located in North Island, New Zealand, at -39.157ยฐ, 175.632ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,291 m.