Submarine volcano โข Bonin Islands, Japan
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Nishinoshima in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 28.8% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~3 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2023.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
28.8%
1-year
2.8%
30-day
~3y
recurrence
27.247ยฐ, 140.874ยฐ ยท Japan ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
28.8%
1-year probability
2.8%
30-day
~3y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 3 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a submarine volcano prior by how complete the record is.
15 eruptions over ~50 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity โ the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 17.2โ45.8% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
effusive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
15 eruptions over ~50 yr โ a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
100m
Elevation
2023
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Submarine volcano
Type
Bonin Islands, Japan region
10.0km deep โข 28km away
Bonin Islands, Japan region
108.3km deep โข 30km away
Bonin Islands, Japan region
73.2km deep โข 40km away
Bonin Islands, Japan region
14.7km deep โข 40km away
Bonin Islands, Japan region
90.6km deep โข 44km away
Bonin Islands, Japan region
96.3km deep โข 49km away
Bonin Islands, Japan region
58.8km deep โข 51km away
Bonin Islands, Japan region
86.6km deep โข 52km away
Bonin Islands, Japan region
17.1km deep โข 52km away
Bonin Islands, Japan region
103.1km deep โข 55km away
Bonin Islands, Japan region
451.4km deep โข 59km away
Bonin Islands, Japan region
27.0km deep โข 61km away
Coordinates
27.2470ยฐN, 140.8740ยฐE
Region
Japan, Taiwan, Marianas
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Nishinoshima in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Nishinoshima's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 28.8% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 3 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Nishinoshima's most recent known eruption was 2023 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Nishinoshima is classified as active. It is a submarine volcano in Bonin Islands, Japan, rising to 100 m.
Nishinoshima is located in Bonin Islands, Japan, at 27.247ยฐ, 140.874ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 100 m.