Subglacial volcano • Central Iceland, Iceland
Very unlikely near-term
Prestahnúkur has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Our model estimates a 1.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~80 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 900.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
1.2%
1-year
0.1%
30-day
~80y
recurrence
64.600°, -20.583° · Iceland · 12 nearby earthquakes
1.2%
1-year probability
0.1%
30-day
~80y
Avg. recurrence
background
Risk level
~1 eruption every 80 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a subglacial volcano prior by how complete the record is.
3 eruptions over ~4200 yr — a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity — the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 0.7–2.2% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
effusive · low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 0
Most eruptions ~VEI 0; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
3 eruptions over ~4200 yr — a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
1,400m
Elevation
900
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Subglacial volcano
Type
71 km ENE of Borgarnes, Iceland
10.0km deep • 12km away
14 km NNW of Hveragerði, Iceland
10.0km deep • 65km away
22 km NNW of Hvolsvöllur, Iceland
10.0km deep • 74km away
5 km SSW of Mosfellsbær, Iceland
10.0km deep • 78km away
8 km NNW of Seltjarnarnes, Iceland
10.0km deep • 82km away
63 km E of Selfoss, Iceland
10.0km deep • 82km away
11 km ESE of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 82km away
2 km SE of Kópavogur, Iceland
10.0km deep • 84km away
3 km ESE of Garðabær, Iceland
10.0km deep • 85km away
9 km SE of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 87km away
0 km S of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 89km away
1 km SSE of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 89km away
Coordinates
64.6000°N, -20.5830°E
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Prestahnúkur has a very low modeled chance of erupting in any given year. Based on Prestahnúkur's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 1.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 80 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Prestahnúkur's most recent known eruption was 900 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Prestahnúkur is classified as active. It is a subglacial volcano in Central Iceland, Iceland, rising to 1,400 m.
About 1,000 people live within 30 km of Prestahnúkur and roughly 150,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is background. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Prestahnúkur is located in Central Iceland, Iceland, at 64.600°, -20.583°, with a summit elevation of 1,400 m.