Stratovolcano โข North Island, New Zealand
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Ruapehu in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 21.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~4 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2007.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
21.2%
1-year
1.9%
30-day
~4y
recurrence
-39.281ยฐ, 175.564ยฐ ยท New Zealand ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
21.2%
1-year probability
1.9%
30-day
~4y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 4 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
66 dated eruptions over ~11857 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4. ~0.2% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 15.6โ28.3% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle ยท high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 4.
66 dated eruptions over ~11857 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,797m
Elevation
2007
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
North Island of New Zealand
84.2km deep โข 15km away
38 km NNW of Waiouru, New Zealand
93.7km deep โข 16km away
4 km SSW of Turangi, New Zealand
125.6km deep โข 34km away
14 km ESE of Turangi, New Zealand
99.1km deep โข 41km away
41 km ENE of Waiouru, New Zealand
60.7km deep โข 48km away
65 km WNW of Waiouru, New Zealand
152.6km deep โข 48km away
13 km NNE of Turangi, New Zealand
100.7km deep โข 52km away
29 km SE of Waiouru, New Zealand
77.2km deep โข 52km away
19 km NNW of Turangi, New Zealand
124.9km deep โข 53km away
55 km E of Eltham, New Zealand
140.6km deep โข 54km away
23 km NNW of Turangi, New Zealand
4.6km deep โข 55km away
58 km WNW of Turangi, New Zealand
234.8km deep โข 57km away
Coordinates
-39.2810ยฐN, 175.5640ยฐE
Region
New Zealand to Fiji
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Ruapehu in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Ruapehu's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 21.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 4 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Ruapehu's most recent known eruption was 2007 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Ruapehu is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in North Island, New Zealand, rising to 2,797 m.
About 50,000 people live within 30 km of Ruapehu and roughly 300,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Ruapehu is located in North Island, New Zealand, at -39.281ยฐ, 175.564ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,797 m.