Stratovolcano • Nicaragua, Nicaragua
Unlikely in any given year
San Cristóbal erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.3% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~30 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2020.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
3.3%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~30y
recurrence
12.702°, -87.004° · Nicaragua · 12 nearby earthquakes
3.3%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~30y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 30 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
7 eruptions over ~359 yr — a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 5. ~0.1% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity — the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 1.8–5.8% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive · high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 5
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 5.
7 eruptions over ~359 yr — a usable record, blended with a volcano-type prior.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
1,745m
Elevation
2020
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
11 km NE of Chinandega, Nicaragua
163.4km deep • 6km away
5 km ENE of Chichigalpa, Nicaragua
159.8km deep • 12km away
16 km ESE of Puerto Morazán, Nicaragua
12.2km deep • 13km away
1 km NW of Posoltega, Nicaragua
144.3km deep • 17km away
4 km NW of Telica, Nicaragua
172.1km deep • 21km away
2 km NNW of Telica, Nicaragua
167.0km deep • 23km away
7 km SW of Posoltega, Nicaragua
151.8km deep • 23km away
10 km SW of Posoltega, Nicaragua
134.6km deep • 26km away
5 km N of Puerto Morazán, Nicaragua
194.7km deep • 29km away
9 km W of El Realejo, Nicaragua
82.0km deep • 32km away
16 km WSW of El Viejo, Nicaragua
117.8km deep • 34km away
11 km NW of Puerto Morazán, Nicaragua
192.4km deep • 36km away
Coordinates
12.7020°N, -87.0040°E
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
San Cristóbal erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on San Cristóbal's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.3% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 30 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
San Cristóbal's most recent known eruption was 2020 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
San Cristóbal is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Nicaragua, Nicaragua, rising to 1,745 m.
About 400,000 people live within 30 km of San Cristóbal and roughly 1,500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
San Cristóbal is located in Nicaragua, Nicaragua, at 12.702°, -87.004°, with a summit elevation of 1,745 m.