Stratovolcano โข El Salvador, El Salvador
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at San Miguel in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 12.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~7 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
12.9%
1-year
1.1%
30-day
~7y
recurrence
13.434ยฐ, -88.272ยฐ ยท El Salvador ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
12.9%
1-year probability
1.1%
30-day
~7y
Avg. recurrence
elevated
Risk level
~1 eruption every 7 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
45 dated eruptions over ~513 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 9.4โ17.5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
45 dated eruptions over ~513 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,130m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
2 km SE of Chinameca, El Salvador
202.7km deep โข 9km away
0 km S of Chinameca, El Salvador
191.8km deep โข 11km away
5 km S of Jucuapa, El Salvador
196.1km deep โข 14km away
5 km SW of Chapeltique, El Salvador
183.5km deep โข 18km away
4 km NE of Santiago de Marรญa, El Salvador
174.6km deep โข 21km away
13 km NE of Chirilagua, El Salvador
10.0km deep โข 26km away
4 km NW of Intipucรก, El Salvador
10.0km deep โข 31km away
14 km WSW of Sesori, El Salvador
200.8km deep โข 35km away
3 km NE of Intipucรก, El Salvador
10.0km deep โข 35km away
11 km S of San Alejo, El Salvador
10.0km deep โข 35km away
11 km W of Conchagua, El Salvador
10.0km deep โข 36km away
10 km WSW of Conchagua, El Salvador
10.0km deep โข 39km away
Coordinates
13.4340ยฐN, -88.2720ยฐE
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at San Miguel in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on San Miguel's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 12.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 7 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
San Miguel's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
San Miguel is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in El Salvador, El Salvador, rising to 2,130 m.
About 800,000 people live within 30 km of San Miguel and roughly 2,500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is elevated. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
San Miguel is located in El Salvador, El Salvador, at 13.434ยฐ, -88.272ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,130 m.