Stratovolcano • Guatemala, Guatemala
Unlikely in any given year
Santa María erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~24 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
4.1%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~24y
recurrence
14.757°, -91.552° · Guatemala · 12 nearby earthquakes
4.1%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~24y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 24 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Only 3 recorded eruption(s) over ~124 yr — likely under-recorded, so the estimate leans partly on the volcano type.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 6. ~0.2% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Limited monitoring or sparse local seismicity — the estimate leans on the long-run base rate.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 1.7–10% (confidence low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive · very high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 6
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 6.
Only 3 recorded eruption(s) over ~124 yr — likely under-recorded, so the estimate leans partly on the volcano type.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
3,772m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 6
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
8 km SSW of Zunil, Guatemala
101.1km deep • 5km away
8 km NNW of El Palmar, Guatemala
101.6km deep • 8km away
1 km W of San Felipe, Guatemala
115.4km deep • 16km away
0 km SE of San Andrés Xecul, Guatemala
148.1km deep • 18km away
2 km NW of Cuyotenango, Guatemala
97.1km deep • 23km away
3 km SSW of El Asintal, Guatemala
100.9km deep • 29km away
9 km N of San Carlos Sija, Guatemala
179.1km deep • 34km away
3 km SE of San José El Ídolo, Guatemala
98.1km deep • 41km away
2 km S of San Rafael Pie de la Cuesta, Guatemala
109.2km deep • 42km away
6 km NE of Santa María Chiquimula, Guatemala
192.3km deep • 45km away
9 km S of San José El Ídolo, Guatemala
89.8km deep • 46km away
8 km NNE of Pajapita, Guatemala
91.8km deep • 48km away
Coordinates
14.7570°N, -91.5520°E
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Santa María erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Santa María's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 24 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Santa María's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Santa María is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Guatemala, Guatemala, rising to 3,772 m.
About 600,000 people live within 30 km of Santa María and roughly 3,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Santa María is located in Guatemala, Guatemala, at 14.757°, -91.552°, with a summit elevation of 3,772 m.