Stratovolcano โข Sumatra, Indonesia
Unlikely in any given year
Sibayak erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 5.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~16 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1881.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
5.9%
1-year
0.5%
30-day
~16y
recurrence
3.230ยฐ, 98.520ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
5.9%
1-year probability
0.5%
30-day
~16y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 16 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history (1 recorded) โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.7โ19.2% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท very high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~6.
Sparse / largely unknown history (1 recorded) โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
2,212m
Elevation
1881
Last Eruption
VEI 1
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
5 km ENE of Berastagi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 5km away
11 km NW of Berastagi, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 10km away
14 km NNW of Berastagi, Indonesia
6.0km deep โข 11km away
16 km N of Berastagi, Indonesia
8.1km deep โข 13km away
15 km NW of Berastagi, Indonesia
11.8km deep โข 14km away
17 km N of Berastagi, Indonesia
11.2km deep โข 14km away
17 km NW of Berastagi, Indonesia
3.7km deep โข 17km away
34 km WNW of Berastagi, Indonesia
128.2km deep โข 35km away
17 km NNE of Parapat, Indonesia
164.7km deep โข 70km away
10 km NNE of Parapat, Indonesia
146.5km deep โข 74km away
74 km WSW of Binjai, Indonesia
129.9km deep โข 79km away
23 km N of Tebingtinggi, Indonesia
185.4km deep โข 81km away
Coordinates
3.2300ยฐN, 98.5200ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Sibayak erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Sibayak's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 5.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 16 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Sibayak's most recent known eruption was 1881 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Sibayak is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Sumatra, Indonesia, rising to 2,212 m.
About 500,000 people live within 30 km of Sibayak and roughly 3,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Sibayak is located in Sumatra, Indonesia, at 3.230ยฐ, 98.520ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 2,212 m.