Stratovolcano โข Java, Indonesia
Possible, not imminent
An eruption at Slamet in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Our model estimates a 26.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~3 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2014.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
26.1%
1-year
2.5%
30-day
~3y
recurrence
-7.242ยฐ, 109.208ยฐ ยท Indonesia ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
26.1%
1-year probability
2.5%
30-day
~3y
Avg. recurrence
high
Risk level
~1 eruption every 3 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
46 dated eruptions over ~242 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 19.4โ34.5% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท low explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 2
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
46 dated eruptions over ~242 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
3,428m
Elevation
2014
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
24 km SSE of Buaran, Indonesia
10.0km deep โข 49km away
20 km NNE of Pemalang, Indonesia
241.9km deep โข 64km away
20 km W of Sidareja, Indonesia
114.6km deep โข 72km away
7 km ENE of Pekalongan, Indonesia
11.1km deep โข 73km away
21 km SSE of Cilacap, Indonesia
100.8km deep โข 74km away
42 km SW of Kroya, Indonesia
103.8km deep โข 78km away
32 km WSW of Cilacap, Indonesia
99.2km deep โข 82km away
33 km SSE of Cilacap, Indonesia
83.4km deep โข 87km away
55 km SSW of Kroya, Indonesia
68.2km deep โข 95km away
43 km SSE of Cilacap, Indonesia
89.3km deep โข 95km away
22 km S of Ciamis, Indonesia
101.1km deep โข 96km away
64 km SSW of Kroya, Indonesia
63.2km deep โข 105km away
Coordinates
-7.2420ยฐN, 109.2080ยฐE
Region
Indonesia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
An eruption at Slamet in any given year is a real but minority possibility. Based on Slamet's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 26.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 3 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Slamet's most recent known eruption was 2014 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Slamet is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Java, Indonesia, rising to 3,428 m.
About 3,000,000 people live within 30 km of Slamet and roughly 15,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is high. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Slamet is located in Java, Indonesia, at -7.242ยฐ, 109.208ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 3,428 m.