Stratovolcano โข Aeolian Islands, Italy
Unlikely in any given year
Stromboli erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 6.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~15 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 2024.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
6.5%
1-year
0.6%
30-day
~15y
recurrence
38.789ยฐ, 15.213ยฐ ยท Italy ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
6.5%
1-year probability
0.6%
30-day
~15y
Avg. recurrence
moderate
Risk level
~1 eruption every 15 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
22 dated eruptions over ~8076 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 4.7โ9% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท moderate explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 3
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; no large (VEI โฅ 4) eruption in the documented record.
22 dated eruptions over ~8076 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
924m
Elevation
2024
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
52 km NE of Santa Marina Salina, Italy
219.8km deep โข 14km away
31 km ENE of Canneto, Italy
216.5km deep โข 17km away
21 km NNE of Malfa, Italy
229.7km deep โข 22km away
39 km W of San Nicolรฒ, Italy
188.4km deep โข 23km away
31 km WSW of Amantea, Italy
204.0km deep โข 54km away
2 km SW of Zambrone, Italy
65.5km deep โข 67km away
38 km WSW of Cittadella del Capo, Italy
251.3km deep โข 70km away
55 km WSW of Cittadella del Capo, Italy
19.0km deep โข 70km away
23 km WSW of San Lucido, Italy
243.0km deep โข 72km away
33 km WSW of Cittadella del Capo, Italy
249.7km deep โข 77km away
43 km WNW of Leni, Italy
10.0km deep โข 77km away
21 km WSW of Scarcelli, Italy
226.1km deep โข 79km away
Coordinates
38.7890ยฐN, 15.2130ยฐE
Region
Mediterranean and Western Asia
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Stromboli erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Stromboli's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 6.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 15 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Stromboli's most recent known eruption was 2024 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Stromboli is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Aeolian Islands, Italy, rising to 924 m.
About 50,000 people live within 30 km of Stromboli and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is moderate. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Stromboli is located in Aeolian Islands, Italy, at 38.789ยฐ, 15.213ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 924 m.