Submarine volcano • Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland
Unlikely in any given year
Surtsey erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.5% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~28 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1967.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
3.5%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~28y
recurrence
63.303°, -20.605° · Iceland · 12 nearby earthquakes
3.5%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~28y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 28 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a submarine volcano prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history — the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data — this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 1–11.7% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle · moderate explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; no large (VEI ≥ 4) eruption in the documented record.
Sparse / largely unknown history — the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
155m
Elevation
1967
Last Eruption
VEI 3
Explosivity Index
Submarine volcano
Type
34 km ESE of Hvolsvöllur, Iceland
10.0km deep • 63km away
22 km NNW of Hvolsvöllur, Iceland
10.0km deep • 73km away
59 km ENE of Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland
10.0km deep • 81km away
63 km E of Selfoss, Iceland
10.0km deep • 86km away
14 km NNW of Hveragerði, Iceland
10.0km deep • 97km away
9 km SE of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 99km away
11 km ESE of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 99km away
9 km S of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 100km away
13 km SSW of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 101km away
9 km SSW of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 104km away
4 km S of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 104km away
11 km SW of Hafnarfjörður, Iceland
10.0km deep • 105km away
Coordinates
63.3030°N, -20.6050°E
Region
Iceland and Arctic Ocean
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Surtsey erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Surtsey's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.5% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 28 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Surtsey's most recent known eruption was 1967 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Surtsey is classified as active. It is a submarine volcano in Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland, rising to 155 m.
About 5,000 people live within 30 km of Surtsey and roughly 180,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Surtsey is located in Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland, at 63.303°, -20.605°, with a summit elevation of 155 m.