Stratovolcano • Chiapas, Mexico
Unlikely in any given year
Tacaná erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 3.9% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months — about one eruption every ~25 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1986.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction — medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated →
3.9%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~25y
recurrence
15.130°, -92.109° · Mexico · 12 nearby earthquakes
3.9%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~25y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 25 yr — the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a stratovolcano prior by how complete the record is.
11 dated eruptions over ~11436 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4. ~0% chance of a VEI ≥ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated →Poisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency — 1-year range 2.8–5.4% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity — see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
gentle · high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 4
Most eruptions ~VEI 1; capable of large (VEI ≥ 4) events — largest recorded VEI 4.
11 dated eruptions over ~11436 yr — a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption size–frequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is — sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated →
4,060m
Elevation
1986
Last Eruption
VEI 2
Explosivity Index
Stratovolcano
Type
1 km SSE of Cantón Villaflor, Mexico
95.0km deep • 26km away
7 km S of Amatenango de la Frontera, Mexico
153.2km deep • 26km away
2 km SSW of San Pablo, Guatemala
93.0km deep • 27km away
2 km S of San Rafael Pie de la Cuesta, Guatemala
109.2km deep • 32km away
8 km W of Cuilco, Guatemala
208.9km deep • 33km away
6 km NNE of Concepción Tutuapa, Guatemala
190.7km deep • 36km away
7 km SW of Belisario Domínguez, Mexico
95.6km deep • 38km away
3 km N of Bejucal de Ocampo, Mexico
197.8km deep • 40km away
8 km NNE of Pajapita, Guatemala
91.8km deep • 40km away
2 km SE of Cantón Rancho Nuevo, Mexico
102.5km deep • 44km away
3 km ESE of Congregación Reforma, Mexico
83.0km deep • 45km away
6 km W of Ixtahuacán, Guatemala
204.6km deep • 45km away
Coordinates
15.1300°N, -92.1090°E
Region
Mexico and Central America
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
📊 Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated →FAQ
Tacaná erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Tacaná's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 3.9% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 25 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction — always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Tacaná's most recent known eruption was 1986 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Tacaná is classified as active. It is a stratovolcano in Chiapas, Mexico, rising to 4,060 m.
About 500,000 people live within 30 km of Tacaná and roughly 3,000,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Tacaná is located in Chiapas, Mexico, at 15.130°, -92.109°, with a summit elevation of 4,060 m.