Lava dome โข North Island, New Zealand
Unlikely in any given year
Tarawera erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.2% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~24 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 1886.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ very low confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.2%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~24y
recurrence
-38.228ยฐ, 176.506ยฐ ยท New Zealand ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.2%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~24y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 24 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a lava dome prior by how complete the record is.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 5. ~0.2% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: Very little monitoring data โ this is essentially the historical base rate, with wide uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 1.2โ13.8% (confidence very low; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
explosive ยท high explosivity
Most eruptions ~VEI 2; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI ~5.
Sparse / largely unknown history โ the rate is dominated by a volcano-type prior, with wide uncertainty.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
1,111m
Elevation
1886
Last Eruption
VEI 5
Explosivity Index
Lava dome
Type
13 km WSW of Kawerau, New Zealand
143.2km deep โข 9km away
16 km E of Rotorua, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 11km away
14 km W of Kawerau, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 16km away
11 km W of Kawerau, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 17km away
7 km SE of Rotorua, New Zealand
158.3km deep โข 17km away
9 km WNW of Kawerau, New Zealand
6.6km deep โข 21km away
8 km WNW of Kawerau, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 21km away
3 km SE of Kawerau, New Zealand
144.2km deep โข 23km away
8 km S of Rotorua, New Zealand
160.5km deep โข 24km away
8 km NNW of Kawerau, New Zealand
153.7km deep โข 25km away
21 km ESE of Tokoroa, New Zealand
170.2km deep โข 39km away
21 km NNE of Taupo, New Zealand
128.9km deep โข 43km away
Coordinates
-38.2280ยฐN, 176.5060ยฐE
Region
New Zealand to Fiji
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Tarawera erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Tarawera's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.2% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 24 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Tarawera's most recent known eruption was 1886 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Tarawera is classified as active. It is a lava dome in North Island, New Zealand, rising to 1,111 m.
About 100,000 people live within 30 km of Tarawera and roughly 400,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Tarawera is located in North Island, New Zealand, at -38.228ยฐ, 176.506ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 1,111 m.