Caldera โข North Island, New Zealand
Unlikely in any given year
Taupo erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Our model estimates a 4.1% chance of an eruption in the next 12 months โ about one eruption every ~24 years on average. Its most recent known eruption was 232.
Statistical estimate, not a prediction โ medium confidence. Always follow official volcano observatory advisories. How this is calculated โ
4.1%
1-year
0.3%
30-day
~24y
recurrence
-38.820ยฐ, 176.000ยฐ ยท New Zealand ยท 12 nearby earthquakes
4.1%
1-year probability
0.3%
30-day
~24y
Avg. recurrence
low
Risk level
~1 eruption every 24 yr โ the GVP eruption frequency blended toward a caldera prior by how complete the record is.
25 dated eruptions over ~9720 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6. ~4.1% chance of a VEI โฅ 4 event this year.
A recently active volcano gets a higher near-term rate; a long-dormant one is tempered.
No live PHIVOLCS/seismic feed for this volcano, so short-term precursors and alert levels are not applied.
Confidence: A monitoring network and a multi-eruption history constrain the estimate, but with meaningful uncertainty.
How this is calculated โPoisson estimate from the GVP eruption frequency, blended toward a volcano-type prior by how complete the record is and adjusted for recency โ 1-year range 2.9โ5.7% (confidence medium; no live seismic feed for this volcano). Philippine volcanoes additionally use live PHIVOLCS alert levels and seismicity โ see the Risk Analysis dashboard.
cataclysmic ยท very high explosivity
Largest recorded: VEI 6
Most eruptions ~VEI 4; capable of large (VEI โฅ 4) events โ largest recorded VEI 6.
25 dated eruptions over ~9720 yr โ a well-documented record the rate can rely on.
Size from the volcano's VEI record combined with the global eruption sizeโfrequency relation; the record grade reflects how complete its eruptive history is โ sparse records lean on a volcano-type prior with wider uncertainty. How this is calculated โ
760m
Elevation
232
Last Eruption
VEI 7
Explosivity Index
Caldera
Type
13 km SW of Taupo, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 5km away
20 km SW of Taupo, New Zealand
5.4km deep โข 7km away
12 km WSW of Taupo, New Zealand
10.0km deep โข 12km away
13 km NNE of Turangi, New Zealand
100.7km deep โข 13km away
18 km W of Taupo, New Zealand
158.4km deep โข 20km away
19 km NNW of Turangi, New Zealand
124.9km deep โข 23km away
Bay of Plenty, New Zealand
100.2km deep โข 25km away
23 km NNW of Turangi, New Zealand
4.6km deep โข 26km away
14 km ESE of Turangi, New Zealand
99.1km deep โข 27km away
18 km NW of Taupo, New Zealand
187.1km deep โข 28km away
4 km SSW of Turangi, New Zealand
125.6km deep โข 29km away
24 km NW of Taupo, New Zealand
167.8km deep โข 36km away
Coordinates
-38.8200ยฐN, 176.0000ยฐE
Region
New Zealand to Fiji
Bars are relative to the 100 km total.
๐ Scientific Note: Volcanic risk assessments use peer-reviewed seismic-volcanic correlation models (Nishimura 2017, Jenkins 2024). These represent statistical probabilities, not predictions. Always follow official PHIVOLCS advisories.
How this is calculated โFAQ
Taupo erupts infrequently, so the chance in any single year is low. Based on Taupo's eruption history, our model estimates roughly a 4.1% chance of an eruption within the next 12 months (about one eruption every 24 years on average). This is a statistical estimate, not a definite prediction โ always follow official volcano observatory advisories.
Taupo's most recent known eruption was 232 (per the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program record).
Taupo is classified as active. It is a caldera in North Island, New Zealand, rising to 760 m.
About 80,000 people live within 30 km of Taupo and roughly 500,000 within 100 km. The current modeled hazard level is low. Local hazard zones and typical eruption size are detailed on this page.
Taupo is located in North Island, New Zealand, at -38.820ยฐ, 176.000ยฐ, with a summit elevation of 760 m.